Transparency tracker
Correct and wrong.
Operated by Jay · ledger is append-only and not edited after lock. Every locked 80% ticket is public — pick, lock price, close, sim snapshot, grade. 65% desk plays are a separate book and never enter this record. If a game is not on this list, the desk sat.
The 80% rule
Official tickets lock one hour before first pitch (or when the game starts) and must be ≥80%. 65% desk plays are a real book with units — they never move the official win–loss record.
Last closed Aug 31, 12:14 AM EDT · append-only · 3 tickets all-time · 1u default · operated by Jay
- PHI @ LAACorrectBet Under 12.5 · 81.2% · fair -432 · final 5–3No posted book (alternate) · fair -432 · 0.5u · final 5–3
Bet Under 12.5. 81% of simulated games hit it (mean total 8.7 vs posted 9.5). Ask the book for this alternate.
Mean 8.7 vs line 9.5True 48.5% / 51.5%89° · 5 mph windShane Livensparger · averageAndrew Painter / Reid Detmers1,600 sims lockedAug 28, 9:38 PM EDT · locked Aug 28, 8:38 PM EDT - CIN @ SFWrongBet CIN +1.5 · 80.6% · fair -416 · final 0–5Lock -257 · close -257 · final 0–5 · 0.5u
Bet CIN +1.5. Engine 81% cover.
Mean 10.0 vs line 7.5True 69.5% / 30.5%62° · 15 mph windChris Conroy · wideChase Burns / Carson Whisenhunt1,600 sims lockedAug 24, 9:45 PM EDT · locked Aug 24, 8:45 PM EDT - SF @ BOSCorrectBet Under 11.5 · 80.6% · fair -415 · final 4–6No posted book (alternate) · fair -415 · 0.5u · final 4–6
Bet Under 11.5. 81% of simulated games hit it (mean total 8.0 vs posted 8). Ask the book for this alternate.
Mean 8.0 vs line 8True 47.6% / 52.4%69° · 5 mph windJohn Libka · averageLogan Webb / Sonny Gray1,600 sims lockedAug 21, 7:10 PM EDT · locked Aug 21, 6:10 PM EDT
65% desk book
Append-only. Oldest stays. Misses stay. Not on the official record.
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 10.5TOR @ TB · 65.0% · final 5–1No posted book (alternate) · fair -186 · 1u+0.54u this play · running +0.54u
- MissDesk play · not on the official recordSEA +1.5SEA @ MIL · 65.4% · final 4–7posted -110 · fair -189 · close -110 · 1u−1u this play · running −0.46u
- MissDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 11.5LAA @ HOU · 68.7% · final 18–3No posted book (alternate) · fair -219 · 1u−1u this play · running −1.46u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 10.5SF @ CLE · 67.9% · final 2–5No posted book (alternate) · fair -212 · 1u+0.47u this play · running −0.99u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordSTL +1.5STL @ CIN · 66.6% · final 10–9posted -257 · fair -199 · close -257 · 1u+0.39u this play · running −0.6u
- MissDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 14STL @ CIN · 67.8% · final 10–9No posted book (alternate) · fair -211 · 1u−1u this play · running −1.6u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordNYY +1.5NYY @ BAL · 71.9% · final 6–1posted -257 · fair -256 · close -257 · 1u+0.39u this play · running −1.21u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordLAA +1.5LAA @ TEX · 65.9% · final 1–2posted -217 · fair -193 · close -217 · 1u+0.46u this play · running −0.75u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 9.5LAA @ TEX · 68.8% · final 1–2No posted book (alternate) · fair -221 · 1u+0.45u this play · running −0.3u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordOver 8CHC @ SEA · 65.3% · final 5–6posted -100 · fair -188 · close -100 · 1u+1u this play · running +0.7u
- MissDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 11.5STL @ PHI · 67.6% · final 6–7No posted book (alternate) · fair -209 · 1u−1u this play · running −0.3u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 10.5TOR @ NYY · 65.7% · final 1–3No posted book (alternate) · fair -192 · 1u+0.52u this play · running +0.22u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 11ATL @ MIL · 70.8% · final 1–2No posted book (alternate) · fair -242 · 1u+0.41u this play · running +0.63u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 10.5WSH @ MIA · 66.9% · final 2–3No posted book (alternate) · fair -202 · 1u+0.5u this play · running +1.13u
- MissDesk play · not on the official recordDET +1.5DET @ KC · 69.4% · final 2–5posted -257 · fair -227 · close -257 · 1u−1u this play · running +0.13u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 10.5DET @ KC · 65.6% · final 2–5No posted book (alternate) · fair -191 · 1u+0.52u this play · running +0.65u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordCLE +1.5CLE @ COL · 67.1% · final 9–1posted -257 · fair -204 · close -257 · 1u+0.39u this play · running +1.04u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 14.5CLE @ COL · 66.9% · final 9–1No posted book (alternate) · fair -202 · 1u+0.5u this play · running +1.54u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 12.5TB @ BAL · 68.9% · final 3–5No posted book (alternate) · fair -222 · 1u+0.45u this play · running +1.99u
- MissDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 9.5SF @ BOS · 67.1% · final 4–6No posted book (alternate) · fair -204 · 1u−1u this play · running +0.99u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordCHC +1.5CHC @ SEA · 74.2% · final 4–5posted -257 · fair -287 · close -257 · 1u+0.39u this play · running +1.38u
- MissDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 13.5STL @ PHI · 70.6% · final 3–12No posted book (alternate) · fair -240 · 1u−1u this play · running +0.38u
- MissDesk play · not on the official recordDET +1.5DET @ KC · 68.9% · final 1–3posted -257 · fair -222 · close -257 · 1u−1u this play · running −0.62u
- MissDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 14NYM @ CWS · 65.5% · final 10–5No posted book (alternate) · fair -190 · 1u−1u this play · running −1.62u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordSF +1.5SF @ BOS · 65.6% · final 2–3posted -117 · fair -191 · close -117 · 1u+0.85u this play · running −0.77u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordTB +1.5TB @ BAL · 67.1% · final 2–3posted -257 · fair -204 · close -257 · 1u+0.39u this play · running −0.38u
- MissDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 12CIN @ AZ · 70.3% · final 11–5No posted book (alternate) · fair -237 · 1u−1u this play · running −1.38u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 10.5LAA @ TEX · 68.2% · final 3–5No posted book (alternate) · fair -214 · 1u+0.47u this play · running −0.91u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordCHC +1.5CHC @ SEA · 67.2% · final 19–2posted -257 · fair -205 · close -257 · 1u+0.39u this play · running −0.52u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordOver 8CHC @ SEA · 66.9% · final 19–2posted -100 · fair -202 · close -100 · 1u+1u this play · running +0.48u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 11STL @ PHI · 66.8% · final 4–6No posted book (alternate) · fair -201 · 1u+0.5u this play · running +0.98u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordATL +1.5ATL @ MIL · 66.2% · final 4–2posted -146 · fair -196 · close -146 · 1u+0.68u this play · running +1.66u
- MissDesk play · not on the official recordOver 8.5WSH @ MIA · 65.8% · final 2–6posted -100 · fair -192 · close -100 · 1u−1u this play · running +0.66u
- MissDesk play · not on the official recordDET +1.5DET @ KC · 65.2% · final 7–11posted -257 · fair -187 · close -257 · 1u−1u this play · running −0.34u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordATH +1.5ATH @ HOU · 67.1% · final 7–6posted -198 · fair -204 · close -198 · 1u+0.51u this play · running +0.17u
- MissDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 12.5ATH @ HOU · 70.0% · final 7–6No posted book (alternate) · fair -233 · 1u−1u this play · running −0.83u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordCLE +1.5CLE @ COL · 68.6% · final 7–2posted -257 · fair -219 · close -257 · 1u+0.39u this play · running −0.44u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 10SF @ BOS · 65.2% · final 4–5No posted book (alternate) · fair -187 · 1u+0.53u this play · running +0.09u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 13TB @ BAL · 65.1% · final 3–1No posted book (alternate) · fair -187 · 1u+0.53u this play · running +0.62u
- MissDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 13.5COL @ WSH · 66.1% · final 3–13No posted book (alternate) · fair -195 · 1u−1u this play · running −0.38u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordWSHCOL @ WSH · 71.7% · final 3–13posted -456 · fair -253 · close -456 · 1u+0.22u this play · running −0.16u
- MissDesk play · not on the official recordOver 7.5PIT @ SD · 67.8% · final 3–2posted -100 · fair -210 · close -100 · 1u−1u this play · running −1.16u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordPIT +1.5PIT @ SD · 75.3% · final 3–2posted -180 · fair -305 · close -180 · 1u+0.56u this play · running −0.6u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 9.5BOS @ MIA · 65.1% · final 4–2No posted book (alternate) · fair -187 · 1u+0.53u this play · running −0.07u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordCLE +1.5CLE @ LAA · 74.5% · final 4–2posted -257 · fair -292 · close -257 · 1u+0.39u this play · running +0.32u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordTB +1.5TB @ DET · 73.4% · final 4–1posted -251 · fair -276 · close -251 · 1u+0.4u this play · running +0.72u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordMIN +1.5MIN @ ATH · 73.1% · final 9–6posted -257 · fair -272 · close -257 · 1u+0.39u this play · running +1.11u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordCHCCHC @ AZ · 69.1% · final 7–0posted -163 · fair -224 · close -163 · 1u+0.61u this play · running +1.72u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordCHC +1.5CHC @ AZ · 77.6% · final 7–0posted -257 · fair -346 · close -257 · 1u+0.39u this play · running +2.11u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordKC +1.5KC @ TOR · 69.9% · final 5–3posted -230 · fair -232 · close -230 · 1u+0.43u this play · running +2.54u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordBAL +1.5BAL @ STL · 67.6% · final 13–1posted -209 · fair -208 · close -209 · 1u+0.48u this play · running +3.02u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordPIT +1.5PIT @ SD · 69.6% · final 1–0posted -176 · fair -229 · close -176 · 1u+0.57u this play · running +3.59u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 10.5PIT @ SD · 69.8% · final 1–0No posted book (alternate) · fair -231 · 1u+0.43u this play · running +4.02u
- MissDesk play · not on the official recordNYYHOU @ NYY · 71.1% · final 9–7posted -456 · fair -246 · close -456 · 1u−1u this play · running +3.02u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordMIL +1.5MIL @ NYM · 70.5% · final 2–3posted -257 · fair -239 · close -257 · 1u+0.39u this play · running +3.41u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 10.5MIL @ NYM · 67.7% · final 2–3No posted book (alternate) · fair -210 · 1u+0.48u this play · running +3.89u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordBOS +1.5BOS @ MIA · 70.4% · final 7–3posted -257 · fair -238 · close -257 · 1u+0.39u this play · running +4.28u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordCLE +1.5CLE @ LAA · 72.4% · final 8–6posted -194 · fair -263 · close -194 · 1u+0.52u this play · running +4.8u
- MissDesk play · not on the official recordTB +1.5TB @ DET · 73.1% · final 1–4posted -187 · fair -272 · close -187 · 1u−1u this play · running +3.8u
- MissDesk play · not on the official recordTEX +1.5TEX @ CWS · 72.6% · final 7–11posted -141 · fair -265 · close -141 · 1u−1u this play · running +2.8u
- MissDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 11.5TEX @ CWS · 69.3% · final 7–11No posted book (alternate) · fair -226 · 1u−1u this play · running +1.8u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordLAD +1.5LAD @ ATL · 73.7% · final 3–4posted -257 · fair -280 · close -257 · 1u+0.39u this play · running +2.19u
- MissDesk play · not on the official recordMIN +1.5MIN @ ATH · 65.7% · final 2–4posted -257 · fair -191 · close -257 · 1u−1u this play · running +1.19u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordCHC +1.5CHC @ AZ · 66.2% · final 4–5posted -257 · fair -196 · close -257 · 1u+0.39u this play · running +1.58u
- MissDesk play · not on the official recordCINCIN @ SF · 69.5% · final 0–5posted -239 · fair -228 · close -239 · 1u−1u this play · running +0.58u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordBAL +1.5BAL @ STL · 69.3% · final 8–7posted -181 · fair -226 · close -181 · 1u+0.55u this play · running +1.13u
- MissDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 11.5BAL @ STL · 65.0% · final 8–7No posted book (alternate) · fair -186 · 1u−1u this play · running +0.13u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordPHI +1.5PHI @ SEA · 68.5% · final 6–0posted -257 · fair -217 · close -257 · 1u+0.39u this play · running +0.52u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 9.5PHI @ SEA · 66.1% · final 6–0No posted book (alternate) · fair -195 · 1u+0.51u this play · running +1.03u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordMIL +1.5MIL @ NYM · 69.6% · final 8–1posted -257 · fair -229 · close -257 · 1u+0.39u this play · running +1.42u
- MissDesk play · not on the official recordBOS +1.5BOS @ MIA · 66.1% · final 0–4posted -257 · fair -195 · close -257 · 1u−1u this play · running +0.42u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 9.5BOS @ MIA · 65.0% · final 0–4No posted book (alternate) · fair -186 · 1u+0.54u this play · running +0.96u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordCLE +1.5CLE @ LAA · 68.9% · final 4–3posted -257 · fair -222 · close -257 · 1u+0.39u this play · running +1.35u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 11.5CLE @ LAA · 66.3% · final 4–3No posted book (alternate) · fair -197 · 1u+0.51u this play · running +1.86u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordLAD +1.5LAD @ ATL · 65.9% · final 5–6posted -257 · fair -194 · close -257 · 1u+0.39u this play · running +2.25u
- MissDesk play · not on the official recordMIA +1.5MIA @ WSH · 73.9% · final 2–9posted -257 · fair -283 · close -257 · 1u−1u this play · running +1.25u
- MissDesk play · not on the official recordSEA +1.5SEA @ TOR · 65.4% · final 1–8posted -139 · fair -189 · close -139 · 1u−1u this play · running +0.25u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 10.5SEA @ TOR · 65.3% · final 1–8No posted book (alternate) · fair -188 · 1u+0.53u this play · running +0.78u
- MissDesk play · not on the official recordSD +1.5SD @ TB · 68.0% · final 4–9posted -160 · fair -212 · close -160 · 1u−1u this play · running −0.22u
- MissDesk play · not on the official recordPIT +1.5PIT @ STL · 66.8% · final 1–4posted -226 · fair -201 · close -226 · 1u−1u this play · running −1.22u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordNYYBOS @ NYY · 65.0% · final 0–1posted -291 · fair -186 · close -291 · 1u+0.34u this play · running −0.88u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordCWS +1.5CWS @ MIN · 68.7% · final 7–4posted -257 · fair -219 · close -257 · 1u+0.39u this play · running −0.49u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 11.5TEX @ MIL · 66.0% · final 1–6No posted book (alternate) · fair -194 · 1u+0.52u this play · running +0.03u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordLAD +1.5LAD @ DET · 73.9% · final 2–1posted -257 · fair -283 · close -257 · 1u+0.39u this play · running +0.42u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordKC +1.5KC @ CLE · 67.9% · final 3–0posted -172 · fair -212 · close -172 · 1u+0.58u this play · running +1u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordBAL +1.5BAL @ ATH · 67.9% · final 4–3posted -257 · fair -211 · close -257 · 1u+0.39u this play · running +1.39u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 10.5PHI @ LAA · 70.1% · final 5–3No posted book (alternate) · fair -234 · 1u+0.43u this play · running +1.82u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordBOS +1.5BOS @ NYY · 65.0% · final 6–0posted -187 · fair -186 · close -187 · 1u+0.53u this play · running +2.35u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordLAD +1.5LAD @ DET · 69.7% · final 1–2posted -257 · fair -230 · close -257 · 1u+0.39u this play · running +2.74u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordCWS +1.5CWS @ MIN · 65.4% · final 3–2posted -257 · fair -189 · close -257 · 1u+0.39u this play · running +3.13u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 10.5PIT @ STL · 69.6% · final 6–2No posted book (alternate) · fair -229 · 1u+0.44u this play · running +3.57u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordCHCCIN @ CHC · 66.1% · final 5–17posted -339 · fair -195 · close -339 · 1u+0.29u this play · running +3.86u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 12MIA @ WSH · 69.0% · final 4–5No posted book (alternate) · fair -223 · 1u+0.45u this play · running +4.31u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 13COL @ ATL · 68.0% · final 1–2No posted book (alternate) · fair -213 · 1u+0.47u this play · running +4.78u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 11.5TEX @ MIL · 65.9% · final 3–5No posted book (alternate) · fair -193 · 1u+0.52u this play · running +5.3u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordOver 10CIN @ CHC · 65.3% · final 7–5posted -100 · fair -188 · close -100 · 1u+1u this play · running +6.3u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordOver 6.5AZ @ SF · 74.6% · final 2–7posted -100 · fair -293 · close -100 · 1u+1u this play · running +7.3u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordBAL +1.5BAL @ ATH · 73.7% · final 5–3posted -257 · fair -280 · close -257 · 1u+0.39u this play · running +7.69u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 13.5BAL @ ATH · 67.2% · final 5–3No posted book (alternate) · fair -205 · 1u+0.49u this play · running +8.18u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordPHIPHI @ LAA · 68.4% · final 4–2posted -349 · fair -217 · close -349 · 1u+0.29u this play · running +8.47u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordPHI +1.5PHI @ LAA · 78.3% · final 4–2posted -257 · fair -361 · close -257 · 1u+0.39u this play · running +8.86u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordMIA +1.5MIA @ WSH · 66.6% · final 6–2posted -169 · fair -200 · close -169 · 1u+0.59u this play · running +9.45u
- MissDesk play · not on the official recordBOS +1.5BOS @ NYY · 65.6% · final 1–16posted -242 · fair -191 · close -242 · 1u−1u this play · running +8.45u
- MissDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 12.5BOS @ NYY · 66.5% · final 1–16No posted book (alternate) · fair -199 · 1u−1u this play · running +7.45u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordATLCOL @ ATL · 68.3% · final 2–3posted -180 · fair -215 · close -180 · 1u+0.56u this play · running +8.01u
- MissDesk play · not on the official recordSEA +1.5SEA @ TOR · 77.1% · final 0–7posted -257 · fair -336 · close -257 · 1u−1u this play · running +7.01u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 11.5SEA @ TOR · 66.2% · final 0–7No posted book (alternate) · fair -196 · 1u+0.51u this play · running +7.52u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordOver 7.5SD @ TB · 65.9% · final 4–5posted -100 · fair -194 · close -100 · 1u+1u this play · running +8.52u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordLAD +1.5LAD @ DET · 72.5% · final 6–1posted -257 · fair -264 · close -257 · 1u+0.39u this play · running +8.91u
- MissDesk play · not on the official recordCWS +1.5CWS @ MIN · 67.6% · final 1–5posted -257 · fair -208 · close -257 · 1u−1u this play · running +7.91u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 12.5TEX @ MIL · 68.0% · final 7–4No posted book (alternate) · fair -213 · 1u+0.47u this play · running +8.38u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordPIT +1.5PIT @ STL · 74.6% · final 5–4posted -257 · fair -294 · close -257 · 1u+0.39u this play · running +8.77u
- MissDesk play · not on the official recordOver 9.5HOU @ NYM · 69.4% · final 6–3posted -100 · fair -227 · close -100 · 1u−1u this play · running +7.77u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordBALBAL @ ATH · 66.3% · final 8–5posted -242 · fair -197 · close -242 · 1u+0.41u this play · running +8.18u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordBAL +1.5BAL @ ATH · 76.4% · final 8–5posted -257 · fair -324 · close -257 · 1u+0.39u this play · running +8.57u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordPHI +1.5PHI @ LAA · 74.1% · final 5–2posted -257 · fair -286 · close -257 · 1u+0.39u this play · running +8.96u
- HitDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 11.5PHI @ LAA · 67.9% · final 5–2No posted book (alternate) · fair -212 · 1u+0.47u this play · running +9.43u
- OpenDesk play · not on the official recordSF +1.5SF @ ATL · 66.5%posted -137 · fair -199 · close -137 · 1u1u · running +9.43u
- OpenDesk play · not on the official recordSD +1.5SD @ CIN · 69.1%posted -257 · fair -224 · close -257 · 0.5u0.5u · running +9.43u
- OpenDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 10.5SEA @ BOS · 65.5%No posted book (alternate) · fair -190 · 1u1u · running +9.43u
- OpenDesk play · not on the official recordBAL +1.5BAL @ COL · 73.2%posted -257 · fair -273 · close -257 · 0.5u0.5u · running +9.43u
- OpenDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 14.5BAL @ COL · 69.3%posted -100 · fair -225 · close -100 · 0.5u0.5u · running +9.43u
- OpenDesk play · not on the official recordNYY +1.5NYY @ LAA · 67.9%posted -249 · fair -212 · close -249 · 0.5u0.5u · running +9.43u
- OpenDesk play · not on the official recordUnder 11.5PHI @ AZ · 67.5%No posted book (alternate) · fair -208 · 0.5u0.5u · running +9.43u