TRUELINE
BoardFinal

Target Field · Aug 30, 2:10 PM EDT

CWS at MIN

8,000 plate-appearance simulations · 127 ms

1–5
The desk sat
Don't bet this game

Don't bet. Best posted side is CWS at 52% — under the 80% floor.

Official tickets only at ≥80%. Sitting is the product — not a missing pick.

65% desk plays

Not official locks. Hit and miss live on this book only — never in the 80% win–loss record.

  • CWS +1.5

    CWS +1.5 leans 68%. Suggestion only — not on the record.

    Final 1–5

    67.6%
    Miss
CWS
72–64 · 4.79 RS/G · 4.47 RA/G
53.3%
true win
Jordan Hicks (R) · 4.43 ERA · 11.1 K/9 · 1.57 WHIP
MIN
65–72 · 4.57 RS/G · 4.98 RA/G
46.7%
true win
Zebby Matthews (R) · 4.58 ERA · last-3 3.06 · 7.5 K/9 · 1.26 WHIP
True home
46.7%
+114
True away
53.3%
-114
Mean total
10.31
median 9 · line 9

Books

BookCWS MLMIN MLRun lineTotalOverUnder
DraftKingsshade-130+130MIN -1.5 +2579-100-100
FanDuelshade-127+120MIN -1.5 +2419-101-102
BetMGMshade-132+136MIN -1.5 +2679-102+103
Caesarsshade-130+123MIN -1.5 +2389-104+101
Fanaticsshade-140+131MIN -1.5 +2459-101-102
TRUELINE fair-114+114+18910.3-103+149

Edges vs market

MIN -1.5
MIN run line. Cover in 34.7% of worlds.
34.6%
+6.6
MIN
MIN moneyline — 46.7% of 8,000 plate-appearance sims.
46.7%
+3.2
Over 9
Mean total 10.31. Over hits 50.7%.
50.7%
+0.7
CWS
CWS moneyline — 53.3% true.
53.3%
-3.2
CWS +1.5
CWS +1.5. Dog covers 65.4%.
65.3%
-6.6
Under 9
Under 9 in 40.1% of sims.
40.1%
-9.9

Score distribution

Total runs across 8,000 worlds

5–4 2%3–4 1.9%1–2 1.8%2–3 1.8%3–2 1.7%4–3 1.7%

How the game can go

Floor, median, and ceiling scripts sampled from the engine

floorCWS 4–0 MIN

CWS 4–0 MIN · CWS wins

  • T6 · MIN bullpen enters
  • B6 · CWS bullpen enters
medianCWS 4–7 MIN

CWS 4–7 MIN · MIN wins

  • B1 · MIN 3-hole solo HR
  • B3 · MIN 7-hole 2-run HR
  • B5 · CWS bullpen enters
  • T6 · MIN bullpen enters
  • B9 · MIN 8-hole 3-run HR
ceilingCWS 11–7 MIN

CWS 11–7 MIN · CWS wins

  • B1 · MIN 5-hole 3-run HR
  • T2 · CWS 8-hole 2-run HR
  • T2 · CWS 3-hole grand slam
  • B3 · MIN 5-hole 2-run HR
  • T5 · MIN bullpen enters

Weather physics

Temp85°F · Overcast
Wind8 mph In From CF
Out to CF-8.0 mph
Density alt.2,997 ft
HR multiplier0.99x
HumidorOff
Park339/404/328 · RF 1.00

Umpire shadow zone

Home plateMalachi Moore
Zonetight
K adj-4.8%
BB adj3.8%

Sampled zone runs small. Mild Over lean.

Bullpen & decay

CWS fatigue26
MIN fatigue29
Away last-3 ERA—
Home last-3 ERA3.06
CWS rest0d
MIN rest0d
F5 home40.9%
Starter Ks8.0 / 6.9

Pitch mix vs order

Zebby Matthews vs CWS
Sinker 38%xwOBA 0.330
Slider 24%xwOBA 0.290
Changeup 22%xwOBA 0.300
Four-seam 16%xwOBA 0.340
Jordan Hicks vs MIN
Four-seam 46%xwOBA 0.320
Slider 30%xwOBA 0.260
Changeup 14%xwOBA 0.300
Curve 10%xwOBA 0.280

Player markets

Jordan Hicks
Pitcher strikeouts 7.5
Over 46.0%
+117 fair
Zebby Matthews
Pitcher strikeouts 6.5
Over 45.2%
+121 fair
CWS team
Team home run 0.5
Over 78.3%
-362 fair
MIN team
Team home run 0.5
Over 62.5%
-166 fair

Desk card

TRUELINE · CWS @ MIN · Target Field
Wind is blowing in at 8 mph — carry is dead. Density altitude 2,997 ft, HR multiplier 0.99x.
Malachi Moore squeezes the zone (walks +4%). Offense wakes up.
Jordan Hicks looks stable (ERA 4.43, 11.1 K/9). Zebby Matthews looks stable (ERA 4.58, 7.5 K/9).
Bullpen fatigue CWS 26 / MIN 29.
8,000 plate-appearance sims. Mean total 10.31 vs line 9. Home win 46.7%.
No 80% ticket. Best posted side CWS at 53.3%. Suggestions (not on the record): CWS +1.5 67.6%.
Unlock the desk

$39/mo or $299/yr for the full 65% book, Markets True, game lab, snapshots, and alerts. Official 80% tickets and the sit count stay public.