BoardFirst pitch

Great American Ball Park · Mon, 6:40 PM EDT · official lock Aug 31, 5:40 PM EDT

SD at CIN

8,000 plate-appearance simulations · 124 ms

The desk sat

Don't bet this game

Don't bet. Best posted side is SD at 56% — under the 80% floor.

Official tickets only at ≥80%. Sitting is the product — not a missing pick.

65% desk plays

Not official locks. Hit and miss live on this book only — never in the 80% win–loss record.

SD +1.5
SD +1.5 leans 67%. Desk play — not on the official record.
67.3%
Open

72–65 · 4.26 RS/G · 4.18 RA/G

55.6%

true win

Michael King (R) · 3.23 ERA · last-3 2.29 · 7.8 K/9 · 1.17 WHIP

CIN

65–72 · 4.16 RS/G · 4.95 RA/G

44.4%

true win

Brady Singer (R) · 4.72 ERA · last-3 5.09 · 7.3 K/9 · 1.42 WHIP

True home

44.4%

+125

True away

55.6%

-125

Mean total

12.30

median 12 · line 11

Books

Book	SD ML	CIN ML	Run line	Total	Over	Under
DraftKingsshade	-223	+223	CIN -1.5 +257	11	-100	-100
FanDuelshade	-211	+213	CIN -1.5 +251	11	+102	-102
BetMGMshade	-235	+224	CIN -1.5 +257	11	-105	+103
Caesarsshade	-217	+219	CIN -1.5 +247	11	-101	+101
Fanaticsshade	-241	+229	CIN -1.5 +248	11	+100	-102
TRUELINE fair	-125	+125	+205	12.3	-100	+139

Edges vs market

CIN

CIN moneyline — 44.4% of 8,000 plate-appearance sims.

44.4%

+13.5

CIN -1.5

CIN run line. Cover in 32.7% of worlds.

32.7%

+4.7

Over 11

Mean total 12.30. Over hits 50%.

50.0%

+0.0

SD +1.5

SD +1.5. Dog covers 67.3%.

67.3%

-4.7

Under 11

Under 11 in 41.8% of sims.

41.8%

-8.2

SD moneyline — 55.6% true.

55.6%

-13.5

Score distribution

Total runs across 8,000 worlds

4–5 1.8%5–6 1.7%5–4 1.6%4–3 1.6%3–4 1.6%6–4 1.5%

How the game can go

Floor, median, and ceiling scripts sampled from the engine

floorSD 1–3 CIN

SD 1–3 CIN · CIN wins

B4 · CIN 6-hole solo HR
T6 · CIN bullpen enters
B7 · SD bullpen enters

medianSD 10–0 CIN

SD 10–0 CIN · SD wins

T5 · CIN bullpen enters
T6 · SD 4-hole 2-run HR
B6 · SD bullpen enters

ceilingSD 6–12 CIN

SD 6–12 CIN · CIN wins

T2 · SD 6-hole solo HR
B2 · CIN 2-hole 3-run HR
T5 · SD 7-hole 3-run HR
B5 · SD bullpen enters
T6 · CIN bullpen enters

Weather physics

Temp72°F · Clear

Wind0 mph Calm

Out to CF0.0 mph

Density alt.1,613 ft

HR multiplier1.27x

HumidorOff

Park328/404/325 · RF 1.10

Umpire shadow zone

Home plateLeague Average

Zonetight

K adj-3.6%

BB adj2.9%

Sampled zone runs small. Mild Over lean.

Bullpen & decay

SD fatigue45

CIN fatigue34

Away last-3 ERA2.29

Home last-3 ERA5.09

SD rest0d

CIN rest0d

F5 home36.1%

Starter Ks7.4 / 6.7

Pitch mix vs order

Brady Singer vs SD

Sinker 38%xwOBA 0.330

Slider 24%xwOBA 0.290

Changeup 22%xwOBA 0.300

Four-seam 16%xwOBA 0.340

Michael King vs CIN

Sinker 38%xwOBA 0.330

Slider 24%xwOBA 0.290

Changeup 22%xwOBA 0.300

Four-seam 16%xwOBA 0.340

Player markets

Michael King

Pitcher strikeouts 6.5

Over 49.2%

+103 fair

Brady Singer

Pitcher strikeouts 6.5

Over 43.6%

+129 fair

SD team

Team home run 0.5

Over 85.2%

-575 fair

CIN team

Team home run 0.5

Over 76.3%

-322 fair

Desk card

TRUELINE · SD @ CIN · Great American Ball Park
Wind is a cross/neutral 0 mph. Density altitude 1,613 ft, HR multiplier 1.27x.
League Average squeezes the zone (walks +3%). Offense wakes up.
Michael King looks stable (ERA 3.23, 7.8 K/9). Brady Singer looks stable (ERA 4.72, 7.3 K/9).
Bullpen fatigue SD 45 / CIN 34.
8,000 plate-appearance sims. Mean total 12.30 vs line 11. Home win 44.4%.
No 80% ticket. Best posted side SD at 55.6%. Suggestions (not on the record): SD +1.5 67.3%.

Unlock the desk

$39/mo or $299/yr for the full 65% book, Markets True, game lab, snapshots, and alerts. Official 80% tickets and the sit count stay public.