TRUELINE
BoardFinal

Tropicana Field · Aug 30, 1:40 PM EDT

SD at TB

8,000 plate-appearance simulations · 119 ms

4–5
The desk sat
Don't bet this game

Don't bet. Best posted side is Over 7.5 at 63% — under the 80% floor.

Official tickets only at ≥80%. Sitting is the product — not a missing pick.

65% desk plays

Not official locks. Hit and miss live on this book only — never in the 80% win–loss record.

  • Over 7.5

    Over 7.5 leans 66%. Suggestion only — not on the record.

    Final 4–5

    65.9%
    Hit
SD
72–65 · 4.26 RS/G · 4.18 RA/G
40.4%
true win
Robbie Ray (L) · 3.14 ERA · last-3 2.93 · 7.6 K/9 · 1.30 WHIP
TB
82–54 · 4.53 RS/G · 4.13 RA/G
59.6%
true win
Drew Rasmussen (R) · 2.95 ERA · last-3 4.50 · 9.2 K/9 · 0.93 WHIP
True home
59.6%
-147
True away
40.4%
+147
Mean total
9.86
median 9 · line 7.5

Books

BookSD MLTB MLRun lineTotalOverUnder
DraftKingsshade+161-161TB -1.5 +1617.5-100-100
FanDuelshade+168-170TB -1.5 +1567.5+101-102
BetMGMshade+153-161TB -1.5 +1607.5-106+103
Caesarsshade+164-165TB -1.5 +1547.5-102+101
Fanaticsshade+155-151TB -1.5 +1627.5+104-102
TRUELINE fair+147-147+1209.9-174+174

Edges vs market

Over 7.5
Mean total 9.86. Over hits 63.5%.
63.5%
+13.5
TB -1.5
TB run line. Cover in 45.5% of worlds.
45.5%
+7.2
SD
SD moneyline — 40.4% true.
40.4%
+2.1
TB
TB moneyline — 59.6% of 8,000 plate-appearance sims.
59.6%
-2.1
SD +1.5
SD +1.5. Dog covers 54.5%.
54.5%
-7.2
Under 7.5
Under 7.5 in 36.5% of sims.
36.5%
-13.5

Score distribution

Total runs across 8,000 worlds

3–4 2.3%1–2 2.1%2–3 2.1%4–3 2.1%2–4 2.1%4–5 2%

How the game can go

Floor, median, and ceiling scripts sampled from the engine

floorSD 2–3 TB

SD 2–3 TB · TB wins

  • T6 · TB bullpen enters
  • B7 · SD bullpen enters
medianSD 6–5 TB

SD 6–5 TB · SD wins

  • B5 · TB 6-hole solo HR
  • T6 · TB bullpen enters
  • B7 · SD bullpen enters
  • B8 · TB 4-hole 3-run HR
ceilingSD 8–9 TB

SD 8–9 TB · TB wins

  • B4 · TB 3-hole 3-run HR
  • B5 · SD bullpen enters
  • T7 · TB bullpen enters

Weather physics

Temp72°F · Dome
Wind0 mph None
Out to CF0.0 mph
Density alt.1,033 ft
HR multiplier0.92x
HumidorOff
Park315/404/322 · RF 0.95

Umpire shadow zone

Home plateTyler Jones
Zonetight
K adj-4.2%
BB adj3.4%

Sampled zone runs small. Mild Over lean.

Bullpen & decay

SD fatigue38
TB fatigue33
Away last-3 ERA2.93
Home last-3 ERA4.50
SD rest0d
TB rest0d
F5 home55.1%
Starter Ks5.1 / 6.1

Pitch mix vs order

Drew Rasmussen vs SD
Sinker 38%xwOBA 0.330
Slider 24%xwOBA 0.290
Changeup 22%xwOBA 0.300
Four-seam 16%xwOBA 0.340
Robbie Ray vs TB
Sinker 40%xwOBA 0.330
Changeup 30%xwOBA 0.280
Slider 20%xwOBA 0.300
Curve 10%xwOBA 0.300

Player markets

Robbie Ray
Pitcher strikeouts 4.5
Over 46.8%
+114 fair
Drew Rasmussen
Pitcher strikeouts 5.5
Over 46.8%
+114 fair
SD team
Team home run 0.5
Over 58.9%
-144 fair
TB team
Team home run 0.5
Over 61.3%
-159 fair

Desk card

TRUELINE · SD @ TB · Tropicana Field
Wind is a cross/neutral 0 mph. Density altitude 1,033 ft, HR multiplier 0.92x.
Tyler Jones squeezes the zone (walks +3%). Offense wakes up.
Robbie Ray looks stable (ERA 3.14, 7.6 K/9). Drew Rasmussen's last three starts ERA 4.50 vs season 2.95.
Bullpen fatigue SD 38 / TB 33.
8,000 plate-appearance sims. Mean total 9.86 vs line 7.5. Home win 59.6%.
No 80% ticket. Best posted side Over 7.5 at 63.5%. Suggestions (not on the record): Over 7.5 65.9%.
Unlock the desk

$39/mo or $299/yr for the full 65% book, Markets True, game lab, snapshots, and alerts. Official 80% tickets and the sit count stay public.