BoardFinal

Wrigley Field · Aug 30, 7:20 PM EDT

CIN at CHC

8,000 plate-appearance simulations · 127 ms

7–5

The desk sat

Don't bet this game

Don't bet. Best posted side is Over 11 at 61% — under the 80% floor.

Official tickets only at ≥80%. Sitting is the product — not a missing pick.

65% desk plays

Not official locks. Hit and miss live on this book only — never in the 80% win–loss record.

Over 10
Over 10 leans 65%. Suggestion only — not on the record.
Final 7–5
65.3%
Hit

CIN

65–72 · 4.16 RS/G · 4.95 RA/G

55.4%

true win

Chase Burns (R) · 2.79 ERA · last-3 4.02 · 10.6 K/9 · 1.16 WHIP

CHC

77–60 · 5.29 RS/G · 4.36 RA/G

44.6%

true win

Shota Imanaga (L) · 4.01 ERA · last-3 5.68 · 8.9 K/9 · 1.14 WHIP

True home

44.6%

+124

True away

55.4%

-124

Mean total

14.01

median 14 · line 11

Books

Book	CIN ML	CHC ML	Run line	Total	Over	Under
DraftKingsshade	+223	-223	CHC -1.5 +134	11	-100	-100
FanDuelshade	+242	-224	CHC -1.5 +135	11	+105	-102
BetMGMshade	+222	-208	CHC -1.5 +141	11	-100	+103
Caesarsshade	+235	-218	CHC -1.5 +133	11	+102	+101
Fanaticsshade	+212	-210	CHC -1.5 +133	11	+103	-102
TRUELINE fair	-124	+124	+202	14.0	-161	+219

Edges vs market

CIN

CIN moneyline — 55.4% true.

55.4%

+24.5

Over 11

Mean total 14.01. Over hits 61.6%.

61.6%

+11.6

CIN +1.5

CIN +1.5. Dog covers 66.9%.

66.9%

+9.6

CHC -1.5

CHC run line. Cover in 33.1% of worlds.

33.1%

-9.6

Under 11

Under 11 in 31.4% of sims.

31.4%

-18.6

CHC

CHC moneyline — 44.6% of 8,000 plate-appearance sims.

44.6%

-24.5

Score distribution

Total runs across 8,000 worlds

4–5 1.6%5–6 1.6%3–4 1.4%5–4 1.4%6–7 1.4%7–6 1.3%

How the game can go

Floor, median, and ceiling scripts sampled from the engine

floorCIN 0–5 CHC

CIN 0–5 CHC · CHC wins

B4 · CHC 9-hole 2-run HR
T7 · CHC bullpen enters
B7 · CIN bullpen enters

medianCIN 6–9 CHC

CIN 6–9 CHC · CHC wins

T2 · CIN 6-hole 2-run HR
B5 · CIN bullpen enters
B5 · CHC 1-hole 2-run HR
B5 · CHC 3-hole 2-run HR
T6 · CHC bullpen enters

ceilingCIN 13–14 CHC

CIN 13–14 CHC · CHC wins

T1 · CIN 4-hole 2-run HR
B1 · CHC 4-hole 3-run HR
B2 · CHC 1-hole 2-run HR
T3 · CIN 6-hole 3-run HR
T4 · CIN 2-hole 2-run HR

Weather physics

Temp77°F · Drizzle

Wind6 mph Out To CF

Out to CF6.0 mph

Density alt.2,244 ft

HR multiplier1.25x

HumidorOff

Park355/400/353 · RF 1.02

Umpire shadow zone

Home plateBrian Walsh

Zonetight

K adj-3.6%

BB adj2.9%

Sampled zone runs small. Mild Over lean.

Bullpen & decay

CIN fatigue51

CHC fatigue32

Away last-3 ERA4.02

Home last-3 ERA5.68

CIN rest0d

CHC rest0d

F5 home34.4%

Starter Ks7.6 / 7.6

Pitch mix vs order

Shota Imanaga vs CIN

Sinker 40%xwOBA 0.330

Changeup 30%xwOBA 0.280

Slider 20%xwOBA 0.300

Curve 10%xwOBA 0.300

Chase Burns vs CHC

Four-seam 46%xwOBA 0.320

Slider 30%xwOBA 0.260

Changeup 14%xwOBA 0.300

Curve 10%xwOBA 0.280

Player markets

Chase Burns

Pitcher strikeouts 7.5

Over 42.8%

+134 fair

Shota Imanaga

Pitcher strikeouts 7.5

Over 42.8%

+134 fair

CIN team

Team home run 0.5

Over 93.1%

-1359 fair

CHC team

Team home run 0.5

Over 82.1%

-458 fair

Desk card

TRUELINE · CIN @ CHC · Wrigley Field
Wind is blowing out at 6 mph — ball flight is up. Density altitude 2,244 ft, HR multiplier 1.25x.
Brian Walsh squeezes the zone (walks +3%). Offense wakes up.
Chase Burns's velocity is down 0.9 mph. Shota Imanaga's last three starts ERA 5.68 vs season 4.01.
Bullpen fatigue CIN 51 / CHC 32.
8,000 plate-appearance sims. Mean total 14.01 vs line 11. Home win 44.6%.
No 80% ticket. Best posted side Over 11 at 61.6%. Suggestions (not on the record): Over 10 65.3%.

Unlock the desk

$39/mo or $299/yr for the full 65% book, Markets True, game lab, snapshots, and alerts. Official 80% tickets and the sit count stay public.