TRUELINE
BoardFirst pitch

Chase Field · Mon, 9:40 PM EDT · official lock Aug 31, 8:40 PM EDT

PHI at AZ

8,000 plate-appearance simulations · 150 ms

The desk sat
Don't bet this game

Don't bet. Best posted side is Under 9.5 at 52% — under the 80% floor.

Official tickets only at ≥80%. Sitting is the product — not a missing pick.

65% desk plays

Not official locks. Hit and miss live on this book only — never in the 80% win–loss record.

  • Under 11.5

    Under 11.5 leans 67% (alternate). Desk play — not on the official record.

    66.7%
    Open
PHI
77–60 · 4.54 RS/G · 4.32 RA/G
48.6%
true win
Aaron Nola (R) · 5.03 ERA · last-3 2.00 · 9.6 K/9 · 1.40 WHIP
AZ
73–65 · 4.53 RS/G · 4.49 RA/G
51.4%
true win
Starter TBD
True home
51.4%
-106
True away
48.6%
+106
Mean total
9.97
median 9 · line 9.5

Books

BookPHI MLAZ MLRun lineTotalOverUnder
DraftKingsshade+147-147AZ -1.5 +1719.5-100-100
FanDuelshade+155-152AZ -1.5 +1689.5+102-102
BetMGMshade+140-146AZ -1.5 +1719.5-105+103
Caesarsshade+151-149AZ -1.5 +1669.5-100+101
Fanaticsshade+139-141AZ -1.5 +1699.5+102-102
TRUELINE fair+106-106+16210.0+108-108

Edges vs market

PHI
PHI moneyline — 48.6% true.
48.6%
+8.1
Under 9.5
Under 9.5 in 51.8% of sims.
51.8%
+1.8
AZ -1.5
AZ run line. Cover in 38.2% of worlds.
38.2%
+1.3
PHI +1.5
PHI +1.5. Dog covers 61.8%.
61.8%
-1.3
Over 9.5
Mean total 9.97. Over hits 48.2%.
48.2%
-1.8
AZ
AZ moneyline — 51.4% of 8,000 plate-appearance sims.
51.4%
-8.1

Score distribution

Total runs across 8,000 worlds

3–4 2.5%2–3 2.4%4–5 2%4–3 1.9%2–4 1.9%3–2 1.8%

How the game can go

Floor, median, and ceiling scripts sampled from the engine

floorPHI 0–5 AZ

PHI 0–5 AZ · AZ wins

  • B1 · AZ 4-hole grand slam
  • B6 · PHI bullpen enters
  • T7 · AZ bullpen enters
medianPHI 1–7 AZ

PHI 1–7 AZ · AZ wins

  • B3 · AZ 4-hole 3-run HR
  • T6 · AZ bullpen enters
  • B6 · PHI bullpen enters
  • T9 · PHI 7-hole solo HR
ceilingPHI 9–10 AZ

PHI 9–10 AZ · AZ wins

  • T3 · PHI 4-hole 2-run HR
  • B5 · PHI bullpen enters
  • T6 · AZ bullpen enters

Weather physics

Temp72°F · Clear
Wind0 mph Calm
Out to CF0.0 mph
Density alt.2,350 ft
HR multiplier1.04x
HumidorOn
Park330/407/335 · RF 1.04

Umpire shadow zone

Home plateLeague Average
Zonetight
K adj-3.6%
BB adj2.9%

Sampled zone runs small. Mild Over lean.

Bullpen & decay

PHI fatigue26
AZ fatigue20
Away last-3 ERA2.00
Home last-3 ERA—
PHI rest0d
AZ rest1d
F5 home47.4%
Starter Ks6.5 / 6.4

Pitch mix vs order

PHI faces TBD
Aaron Nola vs AZ
Four-seam 46%xwOBA 0.320
Slider 30%xwOBA 0.260
Changeup 14%xwOBA 0.300
Curve 10%xwOBA 0.280

Player markets

Aaron Nola
Pitcher strikeouts 6.5
Over 42.0%
+138 fair
PHI team
Team home run 0.5
Over 69.6%
-229 fair
AZ team
Team home run 0.5
Over 72.5%
-263 fair

Desk card

TRUELINE · PHI @ AZ · Chase Field
Wind is a cross/neutral 0 mph. Density altitude 2,350 ft, HR multiplier 1.04x. Humidor is on — coefficient of restitution is suppressed.
League Average squeezes the zone (walks +3%). Offense wakes up.
Aaron Nola looks stable (ERA 5.03, 9.6 K/9). Starter TBD.
Bullpen fatigue PHI 26 / AZ 20.
8,000 plate-appearance sims. Mean total 9.97 vs line 9.5. Home win 51.4%.
No 80% ticket. Best posted side Under 9.5 at 51.8%. Suggestions (not on the record): Under 11.5 66.7%.
Unlock the desk

$39/mo or $299/yr for the full 65% book, Markets True, game lab, snapshots, and alerts. Official 80% tickets and the sit count stay public.