TRUELINE
BoardFinal

Oracle Park · Aug 24, 9:45 PM EDT

CIN at SF

8,000 plate-appearance simulations · 172 ms

0–5
We told you to bet
CIN +1.5

80.6% of worlds · fair -416 · 0.5u · Bet CIN +1.5. Engine 81% cover.

Lock -257 · close -257 · final 0–5 · 0.5u

Final 0–5 — wrong.

Wrong
Locked snapshot

Frozen at lock. Does not update after the final.

Mean 10.0 vs line 7.5True 69.5% / 30.5%62° · 15 mph windChris Conroy · wideChase Burns / Carson Whisenhunt1,600 sims locked

65% desk plays

Not official locks. Hit and miss live on this book only — never in the 80% win–loss record.

  • CIN

    CIN moneyline leans 70%. Suggestion only — not on the record.

    Final 0–5

    69.5%
    Miss
CIN
65–72 · 4.16 RS/G · 4.95 RA/G
69.1%
true win
Chase Burns (R) · 2.79 ERA · last-3 3.63 · 10.6 K/9 · 1.16 WHIP
SF
56–81 · 4.09 RS/G · 4.63 RA/G
30.9%
true win
Carson Whisenhunt (L) · 6.49 ERA · last-3 7.62 · 6.8 K/9 · 1.79 WHIP
True home
30.9%
+224
True away
69.1%
-224
Mean total
10.01
median 9 · line 7.5

Books

BookCIN MLSF MLRun lineTotalOverUnder
DraftKingsshade-241+241SF -1.5 +2577.5-100-100
FanDuelshade-234+221SF -1.5 +2427.5-101-102
BetMGMshade-244+258SF -1.5 +2727.5-101+103
Caesarsshade-241+227SF -1.5 +2397.5-104+101
Fanaticsshade-263+245SF -1.5 +2467.5-100-102
TRUELINE fair-224+224+40410.0-181+181

Edges vs market

Over 7.5
Mean total 10.01. Over hits 64.5%.
64.5%
+14.5
CIN +1.5
CIN +1.5. Dog covers 80.2%.
80.2%
+8.2
SF
SF moneyline — 30.9% of 8,000 plate-appearance sims.
30.9%
+1.6
CIN
CIN moneyline — 69.1% true.
69.1%
-1.6
SF -1.5
SF run line. Cover in 19.8% of worlds.
19.8%
-8.2
Under 7.5
Under 7.5 in 35.5% of sims.
35.5%
-14.5

Score distribution

Total runs across 8,000 worlds

4–3 2.1%3–2 2%4–2 2%3–4 1.9%2–3 1.8%4–5 1.8%

How the game can go

Floor, median, and ceiling scripts sampled from the engine

floorCIN 0–3 SF

CIN 0–3 SF · SF wins

  • B6 · SF 5-hole 2-run HR
  • B6 · CIN bullpen enters
  • T7 · SF bullpen enters
medianCIN 7–0 SF

CIN 7–0 SF · CIN wins

  • T6 · SF bullpen enters
  • B7 · CIN bullpen enters
  • T9 · CIN 5-hole 2-run HR
ceilingCIN 11–7 SF

CIN 11–7 SF · CIN wins

  • T1 · CIN 5-hole grand slam
  • T4 · SF bullpen enters
  • B6 · CIN bullpen enters
  • B6 · SF 2-hole 2-run HR

Weather physics

Temp62°F · Partly Cloudy
Wind15 mph Out To CF
Out to CF15.0 mph
Density alt.350 ft
HR multiplier0.82x
HumidorOff
Park339/391/309 · RF 0.88

Umpire shadow zone

Home plateChris Conroy
Zonewide
K adj3.0%
BB adj-3.0%

Gives pitchers the knees. Starters last longer.

Bullpen & decay

CIN fatigue36
SF fatigue33
Away last-3 ERA3.63
Home last-3 ERA7.62
CIN rest0d
SF rest0d
F5 home23.8%
Starter Ks7.9 / 7.2

Pitch mix vs order

Carson Whisenhunt vs CIN
Sinker 40%xwOBA 0.330
Changeup 30%xwOBA 0.280
Slider 20%xwOBA 0.300
Curve 10%xwOBA 0.300
Chase Burns vs SF
Four-seam 46%xwOBA 0.320
Slider 30%xwOBA 0.260
Changeup 14%xwOBA 0.300
Curve 10%xwOBA 0.280

Player markets

Chase Burns
Pitcher strikeouts 7.5
Over 45.2%
+121 fair
Carson Whisenhunt
Pitcher strikeouts 6.5
Over 47.6%
+110 fair
CIN team
Team home run 0.5
Over 74.1%
-286 fair
SF team
Team home run 0.5
Over 56.0%
-127 fair

Desk card

TRUELINE · CIN @ SF · Oracle Park
Wind is blowing out at 15 mph — ball flight is up. Density altitude 350 ft, HR multiplier 0.82x.
Chris Conroy runs a wide zone (3% K). Unders get a bump.
Chase Burns looks stable (ERA 2.79, 10.6 K/9). Carson Whisenhunt looks stable (ERA 6.49, 6.8 K/9).
Bullpen fatigue CIN 36 / SF 33.
8,000 plate-appearance sims. Mean total 10.01 vs line 7.5. Home win 30.9%.
BET CIN +1.5. Locked. Engine 80.6% — only tickets at ≥80% are published. Suggestions (not on the record): CIN 69.5%.
Unlock the desk

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