TRUELINE
BoardFinal

Busch Stadium · Aug 30, 2:15 PM EDT

PIT at STL

8,000 plate-appearance simulations · 208 ms

5–4
The desk sat
Don't bet this game

Don't bet. Best posted side is PIT at 66% — under the 80% floor.

Official tickets only at ≥80%. Sitting is the product — not a missing pick.

65% desk plays

Not official locks. Hit and miss live on this book only — never in the 80% win–loss record.

  • PIT +1.5

    PIT +1.5 leans 75%. Suggestion only — not on the record.

    Final 5–4

    74.6%
    Hit
PIT
67–71 · 4.85 RS/G · 4.66 RA/G
65.8%
true win
Braxton Ashcraft (R) · 3.59 ERA · last-3 1.17 · 9.2 K/9 · 1.08 WHIP
STL
68–70 · 4.42 RS/G · 4.53 RA/G
34.2%
true win
Matthew Liberatore (L) · 5.41 ERA · last-3 7.63 · 9.4 K/9 · 1.46 WHIP
True home
34.2%
+193
True away
65.8%
-193
Mean total
10.55
median 9 · line 10

Books

BookPIT MLSTL MLRun lineTotalOverUnder
DraftKingsshade-176+176STL -1.5 +25710-100-100
FanDuelshade-166+171STL -1.5 +25410+103-102
BetMGMshade-183+179STL -1.5 +26010-104+103
Caesarsshade-170+176STL -1.5 +25110+100+101
Fanaticsshade-182+190STL -1.5 +26110+104-102
TRUELINE fair-193+193+33210.5+118+111

Edges vs market

PIT +1.5
PIT +1.5. Dog covers 76.8%.
76.8%
+4.8
PIT
PIT moneyline — 65.8% true.
65.8%
+2.1
STL
STL moneyline — 34.2% of 8,000 plate-appearance sims.
34.2%
-2.1
Under 10
Under 10 in 47.4% of sims.
47.4%
-2.6
Over 10
Mean total 10.55. Over hits 45.8%.
45.8%
-4.2
STL -1.5
STL run line. Cover in 23.2% of worlds.
23.2%
-4.8

Score distribution

Total runs across 8,000 worlds

5–4 2%4–3 2%4–5 1.9%3–4 1.9%3–2 1.8%4–2 1.7%

How the game can go

Floor, median, and ceiling scripts sampled from the engine

floorPIT 2–0 STL

PIT 2–0 STL · PIT wins

  • T7 · STL bullpen enters
  • B7 · PIT bullpen enters
medianPIT 6–3 STL

PIT 6–3 STL · PIT wins

  • B1 · STL 5-hole 2-run HR
  • T2 · PIT 6-hole 2-run HR
  • T6 · PIT 7-hole 2-run HR
  • T6 · STL bullpen enters
  • B7 · PIT bullpen enters
ceilingPIT 11–5 STL

PIT 11–5 STL · PIT wins

  • T5 · PIT 5-hole 3-run HR
  • T5 · STL bullpen enters
  • B6 · PIT bullpen enters
  • B7 · STL 5-hole 2-run HR
  • B9 · STL 6-hole solo HR

Weather physics

Temp92°F · Sunny
Wind9 mph Out To LF
Out to CF5.0 mph
Density alt.2,943 ft
HR multiplier1.13x
HumidorOff
Park336/400/335 · RF 0.97

Umpire shadow zone

Home plateWillie Traynor
Zoneaverage
K adj-1.2%
BB adj1.0%

No extreme strike-zone signal in the sample.

Bullpen & decay

PIT fatigue27
STL fatigue35
Away last-3 ERA1.17
Home last-3 ERA7.63
PIT rest0d
STL rest0d
F5 home27.9%
Starter Ks7.1 / 7.7

Pitch mix vs order

Matthew Liberatore vs PIT
Four-seam 44%xwOBA 0.320
Slider 28%xwOBA 0.270
Changeup 18%xwOBA 0.280
Curve 10%xwOBA 0.290
Braxton Ashcraft vs STL
Sinker 38%xwOBA 0.330
Slider 24%xwOBA 0.290
Changeup 22%xwOBA 0.300
Four-seam 16%xwOBA 0.340

Player markets

Braxton Ashcraft
Pitcher strikeouts 6.5
Over 46.8%
+114 fair
Matthew Liberatore
Pitcher strikeouts 7.5
Over 43.6%
+129 fair
PIT team
Team home run 0.5
Over 84.4%
-542 fair
STL team
Team home run 0.5
Over 64.7%
-183 fair

Desk card

TRUELINE · PIT @ STL · Busch Stadium
Wind is blowing out at 9 mph — ball flight is up. Density altitude 2,943 ft, HR multiplier 1.13x.
Willie Traynor is a neutral zone. Matchup and weather dominate.
Braxton Ashcraft looks stable (ERA 3.59, 9.2 K/9). Matthew Liberatore's last three starts ERA 7.63 vs season 5.41.
Bullpen fatigue PIT 27 / STL 35.
8,000 plate-appearance sims. Mean total 10.55 vs line 10. Home win 34.2%.
No 80% ticket. Best posted side PIT at 65.8%. Suggestions (not on the record): PIT +1.5 74.6%.
Unlock the desk

$39/mo or $299/yr for the full 65% book, Markets True, game lab, snapshots, and alerts. Official 80% tickets and the sit count stay public.