Angel Stadium · Aug 28, 9:38 PM EDT

PHI at LAA

8,000 plate-appearance simulations · 141 ms

5–3

We told you to bet

Under 12.5

81.2% of worlds · fair -432 · 0.5u · Bet Under 12.5. 81% of simulated games hit it (mean total 8.7 vs posted 9.5). Ask the book for this alternate.

No posted book (alternate) · fair -432 · 0.5u · final 5–3

Final 5–3 — correct.

Correct

Locked snapshot

Frozen at lock. Does not update after the final.

Mean 8.7 vs line 9.5True 48.5% / 51.5%89° · 5 mph windShane Livensparger · averageAndrew Painter / Reid Detmers1,600 sims locked

65% desk plays

Not official locks. Hit and miss live on this book only — never in the 80% win–loss record.

Under 10.5
Under 10.5 leans 70% (alternate). Suggestion only — not on the record.
Final 5–3
70.1%
Hit

PHI

77–60 · 4.54 RS/G · 4.32 RA/G

48.5%

true win

Andrew Painter (R) · 5.95 ERA · last-3 4.15 · 7.8 K/9 · 1.44 WHIP

LAA

52–85 · 4.05 RS/G · 4.65 RA/G

51.5%

true win

Reid Detmers (L) · 3.54 ERA · last-3 0.45 · 10.1 K/9 · 1.07 WHIP

True home

51.5%

-106

True away

48.5%

+106

Mean total

8.64

median 9 · line 9

Books

Book	PHI ML	LAA ML	Run line	Total	Over	Under
DraftKingsshade	+164	-164	LAA -1.5 +160	9	-100	-100
FanDuelshade	+168	-177	LAA -1.5 +152	9	-101	-102
BetMGMshade	+157	-163	LAA -1.5 +160	9	-105	+103
Caesarsshade	+164	-173	LAA -1.5 +150	9	-104	+101
Fanaticsshade	+152	-162	LAA -1.5 +154	9	-100	-102
TRUELINE fair	+106	-106	+175	8.6	+167	-432

Edges vs market

Under 12.5

Bet Under 12.5. 81% of simulated games hit it (mean total 8.7 vs posted 9.5). Ask the book for this alternate.

81.2%

+1.2

PHI

PHI moneyline — 48.5% true.

48.5%

+10.6

Under 9

Under 9 in 53.2% of sims.

53.2%

+3.2

PHI +1.5

PHI +1.5. Dog covers 63.6%.

63.6%

+2.0

LAA -1.5

LAA run line. Cover in 36.4% of worlds.

36.4%

-2.0

LAA

LAA moneyline — 51.5% of 8,000 plate-appearance sims.

51.5%

-10.6

Over 9

Mean total 8.64. Over hits 37.5%.

37.5%

-12.5

Score distribution

Total runs across 8,000 worlds

2–3 2.8%3–4 2.7%1–2 2.5%3–2 2.5%4–3 2.2%3–5 2%

How the game can go

Floor, median, and ceiling scripts sampled from the engine

floorPHI 3–1 LAA

PHI 3–1 LAA · PHI wins

T7 · LAA bullpen enters
T7 · PHI 1-hole 2-run HR
B7 · PHI bullpen enters

medianPHI 7–2 LAA

PHI 7–2 LAA · PHI wins

B6 · PHI bullpen enters
T7 · LAA bullpen enters
T8 · PHI 6-hole 3-run HR

ceilingPHI 8–13 LAA

PHI 8–13 LAA · LAA wins

T3 · PHI 5-hole 2-run HR
T6 · LAA bullpen enters
B6 · PHI bullpen enters
T9 · PHI 1-hole 2-run HR
B9 · LAA 5-hole grand slam

Weather physics

Temp89°F · Clear

Wind5 mph R To L

Out to CF0.0 mph

Density alt.2,359 ft

HR multiplier1.09x

HumidorOff

Park330/396/330 · RF 0.97

Umpire shadow zone

Home plateShane Livensparger

Zoneaverage

K adj1.8%

BB adj-1.4%

No extreme strike-zone signal in the sample.

Bullpen & decay

PHI fatigue21

LAA fatigue20

Away last-3 ERA4.15

Home last-3 ERA0.45

PHI rest1d

LAA rest1d

F5 home46.7%

Starter Ks7.7 / 8.5

Pitch mix vs order

Reid Detmers vs PHI

Four-seam 44%xwOBA 0.320

Slider 28%xwOBA 0.270

Changeup 18%xwOBA 0.280

Curve 10%xwOBA 0.290

Andrew Painter vs LAA

Sinker 38%xwOBA 0.330

Slider 24%xwOBA 0.290

Changeup 22%xwOBA 0.300

Four-seam 16%xwOBA 0.340

Player markets

Andrew Painter

Pitcher strikeouts 7.5

Over 43.6%

+129 fair

Reid Detmers

Pitcher strikeouts 8.5

Over 42.0%

+138 fair

PHI team

Team home run 0.5

Over 68.7%

-219 fair

LAA team

Team home run 0.5

Over 66.7%

-200 fair

Desk card

TRUELINE · PHI @ LAA · Angel Stadium
Wind is a cross/neutral 5 mph. Density altitude 2,359 ft, HR multiplier 1.09x.
Shane Livensparger is a neutral zone. Matchup and weather dominate.
Andrew Painter looks stable (ERA 5.95, 7.8 K/9). Reid Detmers looks stable (ERA 3.54, 10.1 K/9).
Bullpen fatigue PHI 21 / LAA 20.
8,000 plate-appearance sims. Mean total 8.64 vs line 9. Home win 51.5%.
BET Under 12.5. Locked. Engine 81.2% — only tickets at ≥80% are published. Suggestions (not on the record): Under 10.5 70.1%.

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