BoardFinal

Angel Stadium · Aug 30, 4:07 PM EDT

PHI at LAA

8,000 plate-appearance simulations · 113 ms

5–2

The desk sat

Don't bet this game

Don't bet. Best posted side is PHI at 63% — under the 80% floor.

Official tickets only at ≥80%. Sitting is the product — not a missing pick.

65% desk plays

Not official locks. Hit and miss live on this book only — never in the 80% win–loss record.

Under 11.5
Under 11.5 leans 68% (alternate). Suggestion only — not on the record.
Final 5–2
67.9%
Hit
PHI +1.5
PHI +1.5 leans 74%. Suggestion only — not on the record.
Final 5–2
74.1%
Hit

PHI

77–60 · 4.54 RS/G · 4.32 RA/G

62.8%

true win

Zack Wheeler (R) · 3.31 ERA · last-3 9.00 · 10.6 K/9 · 1.09 WHIP

LAA

52–85 · 4.05 RS/G · 4.65 RA/G

37.2%

true win

Yusei Kikuchi (L) · 5.65 ERA · last-3 7.50 · 9.0 K/9 · 1.49 WHIP

True home

37.2%

+169

True away

62.8%

-169

Mean total

10.05

median 10 · line 9

Books

Book	PHI ML	LAA ML	Run line	Total	Over	Under
DraftKingsshade	-293	+293	LAA -1.5 +257	9	-100	-100
FanDuelshade	-277	+277	LAA -1.5 +250	9	+102	-102
BetMGMshade	-303	+306	LAA -1.5 +265	9	-103	+103
Caesarsshade	-285	+285	LAA -1.5 +246	9	-101	+101
Fanaticsshade	-310	+317	LAA -1.5 +257	9	+103	-102
TRUELINE fair	-169	+169	+295	10.1	+105	+140

Edges vs market

LAA

LAA moneyline — 37.2% of 8,000 plate-appearance sims.

37.2%

+11.8

PHI +1.5

PHI +1.5. Dog covers 74.7%.

74.7%

+2.7

Over 9

Mean total 10.05. Over hits 48.9%.

48.9%

-1.1

LAA -1.5

LAA run line. Cover in 25.3% of worlds.

25.3%

-2.7

Under 9

Under 9 in 41.6% of sims.

41.6%

-8.4

PHI

PHI moneyline — 62.8% true.

62.8%

-11.8

Score distribution

Total runs across 8,000 worlds

5–4 2.1%4–3 2%3–2 2%3–4 2%2–3 2%4–5 1.8%

How the game can go

Floor, median, and ceiling scripts sampled from the engine

floorPHI 4–0 LAA

PHI 4–0 LAA · PHI wins

T6 · LAA bullpen enters
B7 · PHI bullpen enters
T9 · PHI 3-hole solo HR

medianPHI 10–2 LAA

PHI 10–2 LAA · PHI wins

T4 · PHI 4-hole solo HR
B4 · LAA 7-hole 2-run HR
T5 · LAA bullpen enters
B6 · PHI bullpen enters

ceilingPHI 22–5 LAA

PHI 22–5 LAA · PHI wins

T1 · PHI 8-hole 3-run HR
T1 · PHI 4-hole 2-run HR
T3 · LAA bullpen enters
B5 · LAA 3-hole 3-run HR
B6 · PHI bullpen enters

Weather physics

Temp90°F · Sunny

Wind8 mph R To L

Out to CF0.0 mph

Density alt.2,428 ft

HR multiplier1.10x

HumidorOff

Park330/396/330 · RF 0.97

Umpire shadow zone

Home plateDan Bellino

Zonewide

K adj5.0%

BB adj-6.0%

Large zone, especially glove-side. Heavy Under lean.

Bullpen & decay

PHI fatigue38

LAA fatigue42

Away last-3 ERA9.00

Home last-3 ERA7.50

PHI rest0d

LAA rest0d

F5 home32.1%

Starter Ks8.6 / 7.6

Pitch mix vs order

Yusei Kikuchi vs PHI

Sinker 40%xwOBA 0.330

Changeup 30%xwOBA 0.280

Slider 20%xwOBA 0.300

Curve 10%xwOBA 0.300

Zack Wheeler vs LAA

Four-seam 46%xwOBA 0.320

Slider 30%xwOBA 0.260

Changeup 14%xwOBA 0.300

Curve 10%xwOBA 0.280

Player markets

Zack Wheeler

Pitcher strikeouts 8.5

Over 42.8%

+134 fair

Yusei Kikuchi

Pitcher strikeouts 7.5

Over 42.8%

+134 fair

PHI team

Team home run 0.5

Over 82.1%

-458 fair

LAA team

Team home run 0.5

Over 68.0%

-213 fair

Desk card

TRUELINE · PHI @ LAA · Angel Stadium
Wind is a cross/neutral 8 mph. Density altitude 2,428 ft, HR multiplier 1.10x.
Dan Bellino runs a wide zone (5% K). Unders get a bump.
Zack Wheeler's last three starts ERA 9.00 vs season 3.31. Yusei Kikuchi's last three starts ERA 7.50 vs season 5.65.
Bullpen fatigue PHI 38 / LAA 42.
8,000 plate-appearance sims. Mean total 10.05 vs line 9. Home win 37.2%.
No 80% ticket. Best posted side PHI at 62.8%. Suggestions (not on the record): Under 11.5 67.9%; PHI +1.5 74.1%.

Unlock the desk

$39/mo or $299/yr for the full 65% book, Markets True, game lab, snapshots, and alerts. Official 80% tickets and the sit count stay public.