BoardFinal

Nationals Park · Aug 30, 12:15 PM EDT

MIA at WSH

8,000 plate-appearance simulations · 126 ms

6–2

The desk sat

Don't bet this game

Don't bet. Best posted side is Over 10.5 at 56% — under the 80% floor.

Official tickets only at ≥80%. Sitting is the product — not a missing pick.

65% desk plays

Not official locks. Hit and miss live on this book only — never in the 80% win–loss record.

MIA +1.5
MIA +1.5 leans 67%. Suggestion only — not on the record.
Final 6–2
66.6%
Hit

MIA

69–68 · 4.34 RS/G · 4.23 RA/G

52.5%

true win

Janson Junk (R) · 4.11 ERA · last-3 2.30 · 6.1 K/9 · 1.30 WHIP

WSH

65–74 · 5.18 RS/G · 5.06 RA/G

47.5%

true win

Andrew Alvarez (L) · 3.47 ERA · last-3 3.52 · 8.5 K/9 · 1.31 WHIP

True home

47.5%

+111

True away

52.5%

-111

Mean total

11.57

median 11 · line 10.5

Books

Book	MIA ML	WSH ML	Run line	Total	Over	Under
DraftKingsshade	+151	-151	WSH -1.5 +168	10.5	-100	-100
FanDuelshade	+154	-165	WSH -1.5 +158	10.5	-102	-102
BetMGMshade	+149	-143	WSH -1.5 +175	10.5	-101	+103
Caesarsshade	+150	-161	WSH -1.5 +156	10.5	-104	+101
Fanaticsshade	+140	-149	WSH -1.5 +162	10.5	-100	-102
TRUELINE fair	-111	+111	+188	11.6	-115	+115

Edges vs market

MIA

MIA moneyline — 52.5% true.

52.5%

+12.7

Over 10.5

Mean total 11.57. Over hits 53.5%.

53.4%

+3.4

MIA +1.5

MIA +1.5. Dog covers 65.3%.

65.3%

+2.6

WSH -1.5

WSH run line. Cover in 34.7% of worlds.

34.7%

-2.6

Under 10.5

Under 10.5 in 46.6% of sims.

46.6%

-3.4

WSH

WSH moneyline — 47.5% of 8,000 plate-appearance sims.

47.5%

-12.7

Score distribution

Total runs across 8,000 worlds

3–4 2%4–5 1.9%2–3 1.8%2–4 1.7%4–3 1.6%5–6 1.6%

How the game can go

Floor, median, and ceiling scripts sampled from the engine

floorMIA 4–2 WSH

MIA 4–2 WSH · MIA wins

T6 · WSH bullpen enters
T7 · MIA 2-hole solo HR
B7 · MIA bullpen enters

medianMIA 7–4 WSH

MIA 7–4 WSH · MIA wins

B2 · WSH 7-hole 2-run HR
T6 · WSH bullpen enters
B6 · MIA bullpen enters
T8 · MIA 2-hole 2-run HR

ceilingMIA 11–9 WSH

MIA 11–9 WSH · MIA wins

T5 · WSH bullpen enters
B6 · MIA bullpen enters

Weather physics

Temp80°F · Partly Cloudy

Wind10 mph Out To RF

Out to CF5.5 mph

Density alt.1,639 ft

HR multiplier1.19x

HumidorOff

Park336/403/335 · RF 1.01

Umpire shadow zone

Home plateErich Bacchus

Zoneaverage

K adj-0.6%

BB adj0.5%

No extreme strike-zone signal in the sample.

Bullpen & decay

MIA fatigue45

WSH fatigue44

Away last-3 ERA2.30

Home last-3 ERA3.52

MIA rest0d

WSH rest0d

F5 home41.0%

Starter Ks5.5 / 6.8

Pitch mix vs order

Andrew Alvarez vs MIA

Sinker 40%xwOBA 0.330

Changeup 30%xwOBA 0.280

Slider 20%xwOBA 0.300

Curve 10%xwOBA 0.300

Janson Junk vs WSH

Sinker 38%xwOBA 0.330

Slider 24%xwOBA 0.290

Changeup 22%xwOBA 0.300

Four-seam 16%xwOBA 0.340

Player markets

Janson Junk

Pitcher strikeouts 5.5

Over 42.0%

+138 fair

Andrew Alvarez

Pitcher strikeouts 6.5

Over 44.4%

+125 fair

MIA team

Team home run 0.5

Over 73.0%

-271 fair

WSH team

Team home run 0.5

Over 74.3%

-290 fair

Desk card

TRUELINE · MIA @ WSH · Nationals Park
Wind is blowing out at 10 mph — ball flight is up. Density altitude 1,639 ft, HR multiplier 1.19x.
Erich Bacchus is a neutral zone. Matchup and weather dominate.
Janson Junk looks stable (ERA 4.11, 6.1 K/9). Andrew Alvarez looks stable (ERA 3.47, 8.5 K/9).
Bullpen fatigue MIA 45 / WSH 44.
8,000 plate-appearance sims. Mean total 11.57 vs line 10.5. Home win 47.5%.
No 80% ticket. Best posted side Over 10.5 at 53.5%. Suggestions (not on the record): MIA +1.5 66.6%.

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