TRUELINE
BoardFirst pitch

Fenway Park · Mon, 6:45 PM EDT · official lock Aug 31, 5:45 PM EDT

SEA at BOS

8,000 plate-appearance simulations · 123 ms

The desk sat
Don't bet this game

Don't bet. Best posted side is BOS at 51% — under the 80% floor.

Official tickets only at ≥80%. Sitting is the product — not a missing pick.

65% desk plays

Not official locks. Hit and miss live on this book only — never in the 80% win–loss record.

  • Under 10.5

    Under 10.5 leans 66% (alternate). Desk play — not on the official record.

    65.9%
    Open
SEA
64–73 · 3.87 RS/G · 4.39 RA/G
48.8%
true win
George Kirby (R) · 4.02 ERA · last-3 6.89 · 7.7 K/9 · 1.33 WHIP
BOS
74–63 · 4.45 RS/G · 3.83 RA/G
51.2%
true win
Payton Tolle (L) · 3.09 ERA · last-3 2.45 · 10.1 K/9 · 1.09 WHIP
True home
51.2%
-105
True away
48.8%
+105
Mean total
8.94
median 8 · line 8.5

Books

BookSEA MLBOS MLRun lineTotalOverUnder
DraftKingsshade+356-356BOS -1.5 +1088.5-100-100
FanDuelshade+391-364BOS -1.5 +1088.5+104-102
BetMGMshade+334-354BOS -1.5 +1088.5-105+103
Caesarsshade+377-351BOS -1.5 +1078.5+101+101
Fanaticsshade+322-349BOS -1.5 +1048.5-100-102
TRUELINE fair+105-105+1688.9+104-104

Edges vs market

SEA
SEA moneyline — 48.8% true.
48.8%
+26.9
SEA +1.5
SEA +1.5. Dog covers 62.8%.
62.7%
+10.8
Under 8.5
Under 8.5 in 51% of sims.
51.0%
+1.0
Over 8.5
Mean total 8.94. Over hits 49%.
49.0%
-1.0
BOS -1.5
BOS run line. Cover in 37.3% of worlds.
37.3%
-10.8
BOS
BOS moneyline — 51.2% of 8,000 plate-appearance sims.
51.2%
-26.9

Score distribution

Total runs across 8,000 worlds

3–4 2.6%3–2 2.5%2–3 2.3%1–2 2.2%4–3 2%2–1 2%

How the game can go

Floor, median, and ceiling scripts sampled from the engine

floorSEA 2–0 BOS

SEA 2–0 BOS · SEA wins

  • T6 · BOS bullpen enters
  • B6 · SEA bullpen enters
medianSEA 4–2 BOS

SEA 4–2 BOS · SEA wins

  • T6 · BOS bullpen enters
  • B7 · SEA bullpen enters
ceilingSEA 6–9 BOS

SEA 6–9 BOS · BOS wins

  • B1 · BOS 6-hole 3-run HR
  • B3 · BOS 4-hole 2-run HR
  • B5 · SEA bullpen enters
  • T6 · BOS bullpen enters
  • T8 · SEA 8-hole 3-run HR

Weather physics

Temp72°F · Clear
Wind0 mph Calm
Out to CF0.0 mph
Density alt.1,012 ft
HR multiplier0.96x
HumidorOff
Park310/420/302 · RF 1.07

Umpire shadow zone

Home plateLeague Average
Zonetight
K adj-3.6%
BB adj2.9%

Sampled zone runs small. Mild Over lean.

Bullpen & decay

SEA fatigue39
BOS fatigue45
Away last-3 ERA6.89
Home last-3 ERA2.45
SEA rest0d
BOS rest0d
F5 home45.4%
Starter Ks5.7 / 7.8

Pitch mix vs order

Payton Tolle vs SEA
Four-seam 44%xwOBA 0.320
Slider 28%xwOBA 0.270
Changeup 18%xwOBA 0.280
Curve 10%xwOBA 0.290
George Kirby vs BOS
Sinker 38%xwOBA 0.330
Slider 24%xwOBA 0.290
Changeup 22%xwOBA 0.300
Four-seam 16%xwOBA 0.340

Player markets

George Kirby
Pitcher strikeouts 5.5
Over 43.6%
+129 fair
Payton Tolle
Pitcher strikeouts 7.5
Over 44.4%
+125 fair
SEA team
Team home run 0.5
Over 61.7%
-161 fair
BOS team
Team home run 0.5
Over 60.1%
-151 fair

Desk card

TRUELINE · SEA @ BOS · Fenway Park
Wind is a cross/neutral 0 mph. Density altitude 1,012 ft, HR multiplier 0.96x.
League Average squeezes the zone (walks +3%). Offense wakes up.
George Kirby's last three starts ERA 6.89 vs season 4.02. Payton Tolle looks stable (ERA 3.09, 10.1 K/9).
Bullpen fatigue SEA 39 / BOS 45.
8,000 plate-appearance sims. Mean total 8.94 vs line 8.5. Home win 51.2%.
No 80% ticket. Best posted side BOS at 51.2%. Suggestions (not on the record): Under 10.5 65.9%.
Unlock the desk

$39/mo or $299/yr for the full 65% book, Markets True, game lab, snapshots, and alerts. Official 80% tickets and the sit count stay public.