TRUELINE
BoardFirst pitch

Truist Park · Mon, 6:05 PM EDT · official lock Aug 31, 5:05 PM EDT

SF at ATL

8,000 plate-appearance simulations · 151 ms

The desk sat
Don't bet this game

Don't bet. Best posted side is SF at 54% — under the 80% floor.

Official tickets only at ≥80%. Sitting is the product — not a missing pick.

65% desk plays

Not official locks. Hit and miss live on this book only — never in the 80% win–loss record.

  • SF +1.5

    SF +1.5 leans 67%. Desk play — not on the official record.

    66.6%
    Open
SF
56–81 · 4.09 RS/G · 4.63 RA/G
54.1%
true win
Anthony Molina (R) · 2.89 ERA · 2.9 K/9 · 0.96 WHIP
ATL
82–55 · 4.64 RS/G · 3.79 RA/G
45.9%
true win
Bryce Elder (R) · 3.95 ERA · last-3 5.82 · 7.4 K/9 · 1.24 WHIP
True home
45.9%
+118
True away
54.1%
-118
Mean total
10.46
median 10 · line 9

Books

BookSF MLATL MLRun lineTotalOverUnder
DraftKingsshade+212-212ATL -1.5 +1379-100-100
FanDuelshade+217-232ATL -1.5 +1309-101-102
BetMGMshade+200-213ATL -1.5 +1369-106+103
Caesarsshade+211-226ATL -1.5 +1289-104+101
Fanaticsshade+204-196ATL -1.5 +1389+104-102
TRUELINE fair-118+118+19910.5-110+159

Edges vs market

SF
SF moneyline — 54.1% true.
54.1%
+22.0
SF +1.5
SF +1.5. Dog covers 66.6%.
66.6%
+8.8
Over 9
Mean total 10.46. Over hits 52.3%.
52.3%
+2.3
ATL -1.5
ATL run line. Cover in 33.4% of worlds.
33.4%
-8.8
Under 9
Under 9 in 38.6% of sims.
38.6%
-11.4
ATL
ATL moneyline — 45.9% of 8,000 plate-appearance sims.
45.9%
-22.0

Score distribution

Total runs across 8,000 worlds

3–4 2.2%4–5 2.1%5–4 1.9%4–3 1.9%2–3 1.8%3–2 1.8%

How the game can go

Floor, median, and ceiling scripts sampled from the engine

floorSF 3–2 ATL

SF 3–2 ATL · SF wins

  • B1 · ATL 3-hole 2-run HR
  • T5 · SF 2-hole solo HR
  • T5 · ATL bullpen enters
  • B5 · SF bullpen enters
medianSF 7–4 ATL

SF 7–4 ATL · SF wins

  • B5 · ATL 4-hole 3-run HR
  • B5 · SF bullpen enters
  • T6 · SF 7-hole 2-run HR
  • T7 · ATL bullpen enters
ceilingSF 7–14 ATL

SF 7–14 ATL · ATL wins

  • T2 · SF 8-hole 2-run HR
  • B5 · SF bullpen enters
  • T6 · ATL bullpen enters
  • B7 · ATL 1-hole 2-run HR

Weather physics

Temp72°F · Clear
Wind0 mph Calm
Out to CF0.0 mph
Density alt.2,246 ft
HR multiplier1.15x
HumidorOff
Park335/400/325 · RF 1.02

Umpire shadow zone

Home plateLeague Average
Zonetight
K adj-3.6%
BB adj2.9%

Sampled zone runs small. Mild Over lean.

Bullpen & decay

SF fatigue22
ATL fatigue34
Away last-3 ERA—
Home last-3 ERA5.82
SF rest1d
ATL rest0d
F5 home38.0%
Starter Ks5.0 / 5.7

Pitch mix vs order

Bryce Elder vs SF
Sinker 38%xwOBA 0.330
Slider 24%xwOBA 0.290
Changeup 22%xwOBA 0.300
Four-seam 16%xwOBA 0.340
Anthony Molina vs ATL
Sinker 38%xwOBA 0.330
Slider 24%xwOBA 0.290
Changeup 22%xwOBA 0.300
Four-seam 16%xwOBA 0.340

Player markets

Anthony Molina
Pitcher strikeouts 4.5
Over 46.0%
+117 fair
Bryce Elder
Pitcher strikeouts 5.5
Over 43.6%
+129 fair
SF team
Team home run 0.5
Over 76.8%
-331 fair
ATL team
Team home run 0.5
Over 70.8%
-242 fair

Desk card

TRUELINE · SF @ ATL · Truist Park
Wind is a cross/neutral 0 mph. Density altitude 2,246 ft, HR multiplier 1.15x.
League Average squeezes the zone (walks +3%). Offense wakes up.
Anthony Molina looks stable (ERA 2.89, 2.9 K/9). Bryce Elder's last three starts ERA 5.82 vs season 3.95.
Bullpen fatigue SF 22 / ATL 34.
8,000 plate-appearance sims. Mean total 10.46 vs line 9. Home win 45.9%.
No 80% ticket. Best posted side SF at 54.1%. Suggestions (not on the record): SF +1.5 66.6%.
Unlock the desk

$39/mo or $299/yr for the full 65% book, Markets True, game lab, snapshots, and alerts. Official 80% tickets and the sit count stay public.