BoardFirst pitch

Coors Field · Mon, 8:40 PM EDT · official lock Aug 31, 7:40 PM EDT

BAL at COL

8,000 plate-appearance simulations · 113 ms

The desk sat

Don't bet this game

Don't bet. Best posted side is Under 14.5 at 70% — under the 80% floor.

Official tickets only at ≥80%. Sitting is the product — not a missing pick.

65% desk plays

Not official locks. Hit and miss live on this book only — never in the 80% win–loss record.

BAL +1.5
BAL +1.5 leans 72%. Desk play — not on the official record.
72.0%
Open
Under 14.5
Under 14.5 leans 70%. Desk play — not on the official record.
69.8%
Open

BAL

68–69 · 4.57 RS/G · 4.70 RA/G

60.8%

true win

Starter TBD

COL

52–85 · 4.70 RS/G · 5.74 RA/G

39.2%

true win

Tanner Gordon (R) · 5.38 ERA · last-3 3.63 · 7.4 K/9 · 1.43 WHIP

True home

39.2%

+155

True away

60.8%

-155

Mean total

12.05

median 11 · line 14.5

Books

Book	BAL ML	COL ML	Run line	Total	Over	Under
DraftKingsshade	-193	+193	COL -1.5 +257	14.5	-100	-100
FanDuelshade	-185	+182	COL -1.5 +247	14.5	+101	-102
BetMGMshade	-195	+206	COL -1.5 +272	14.5	-101	+103
Caesarsshade	-190	+187	COL -1.5 +244	14.5	-102	+101
Fanaticsshade	-201	+207	COL -1.5 +258	14.5	+104	-102
TRUELINE fair	-155	+155	+257	12.0	+232	-232

Edges vs market

Under 14.5

Under 14.5 in 69.8% of sims.

69.8%

+19.8

COL

COL moneyline — 39.2% of 8,000 plate-appearance sims.

39.2%

+5.1

COL -1.5

COL run line. Cover in 28% of worlds.

28.0%

+0.0

BAL +1.5

BAL +1.5. Dog covers 72%.

72.0%

-0.0

BAL

BAL moneyline — 60.8% true.

60.8%

-5.1

Over 14.5

Mean total 12.05. Over hits 30.2%.

30.2%

-19.8

Score distribution

Total runs across 8,000 worlds

5–6 1.7%6–5 1.6%3–4 1.6%4–5 1.6%5–4 1.6%4–3 1.5%

How the game can go

Floor, median, and ceiling scripts sampled from the engine

floorBAL 1–4 COL

BAL 1–4 COL · COL wins

B6 · BAL bullpen enters
B6 · COL 8-hole grand slam
T7 · COL bullpen enters

medianBAL 7–6 COL

BAL 7–6 COL · BAL wins

T3 · BAL 8-hole grand slam
B5 · COL 4-hole 3-run HR
B5 · COL 7-hole 2-run HR
B5 · BAL bullpen enters
T6 · COL bullpen enters

ceilingBAL 17–9 COL

BAL 17–9 COL · BAL wins

B1 · COL 2-hole solo HR
T6 · COL bullpen enters
T6 · BAL 4-hole 2-run HR
B6 · BAL bullpen enters
T8 · BAL 3-hole grand slam

Weather physics

Temp72°F · Clear

Wind0 mph Calm

Out to CF0.0 mph

Density alt.8,021 ft

HR multiplier1.38x

HumidorOn

Park347/415/350 · RF 1.28

Umpire shadow zone

Home plateLeague Average

Zonetight

K adj-3.6%

BB adj2.9%

Sampled zone runs small. Mild Over lean.

Bullpen & decay

BAL fatigue35

COL fatigue44

Away last-3 ERA—

Home last-3 ERA3.63

BAL rest0d

COL rest0d

F5 home36.0%

Starter Ks8.0 / 7.3

Pitch mix vs order

Tanner Gordon vs BAL

Sinker 38%xwOBA 0.330

Slider 24%xwOBA 0.290

Changeup 22%xwOBA 0.300

Four-seam 16%xwOBA 0.340

COL faces TBD

Player markets

Tanner Gordon

Pitcher strikeouts 6.5

Over 48.4%

+107 fair

BAL team

Team home run 0.5

Over 90.5%

-949 fair

COL team

Team home run 0.5

Over 75.8%

-314 fair

Desk card

TRUELINE · BAL @ COL · Coors Field
Wind is a cross/neutral 0 mph. Density altitude 8,021 ft, HR multiplier 1.38x. Humidor is on — coefficient of restitution is suppressed.
League Average squeezes the zone (walks +3%). Offense wakes up.
Starter TBD. Tanner Gordon looks stable (ERA 5.38, 7.4 K/9).
Bullpen fatigue BAL 35 / COL 44.
8,000 plate-appearance sims. Mean total 12.05 vs line 14.5. Home win 39.2%.
No 80% ticket. Best posted side Under 14.5 at 69.8%. Suggestions (not on the record): BAL +1.5 72%; Under 14.5 69.8%.

Unlock the desk

$39/mo or $299/yr for the full 65% book, Markets True, game lab, snapshots, and alerts. Official 80% tickets and the sit count stay public.