BoardFinal

Yankee Stadium · Aug 30, 1:35 PM EDT

BOS at NYY

8,000 plate-appearance simulations · 121 ms

1–16

The desk sat

Don't bet this game

Don't bet. Best posted side is Under 10.5 at 53% — under the 80% floor.

Official tickets only at ≥80%. Sitting is the product — not a missing pick.

65% desk plays

Not official locks. Hit and miss live on this book only — never in the 80% win–loss record.

BOS +1.5
BOS +1.5 leans 66%. Suggestion only — not on the record.
Final 1–16
65.6%
Miss
Under 12.5
Under 12.5 leans 67% (alternate). Suggestion only — not on the record.
Final 1–16
66.5%
Miss

BOS

74–63 · 4.45 RS/G · 3.83 RA/G

52.6%

true win

Ranger Suarez (L) · 3.64 ERA · last-3 3.52 · 8.7 K/9 · 1.24 WHIP

NYY

78–59 · 4.54 RS/G · 3.69 RA/G

47.3%

true win

Will Warren (R) · 4.23 ERA · last-3 6.23 · 8.9 K/9 · 1.40 WHIP

True home

47.3%

+111

True away

52.6%

-111

Mean total

10.82

median 10 · line 10.5

Books

Book	BOS ML	NYY ML	Run line	Total	Over	Under
DraftKingsshade	+119	-119	NYY -1.5 +197	10.5	-100	-100
FanDuelshade	+127	-120	NYY -1.5 +198	10.5	+104	-102
BetMGMshade	+118	-112	NYY -1.5 +208	10.5	-100	+103
Caesarsshade	+124	-117	NYY -1.5 +195	10.5	+102	+101
Fanaticsshade	+114	-113	NYY -1.5 +196	10.5	+103	-102
TRUELINE fair	-111	+111	+190	10.8	+111	-111

Edges vs market

BOS

BOS moneyline — 52.7% true.

52.6%

+7.0

Under 10.5

Under 10.5 in 52.5% of sims.

52.5%

+2.5

NYY -1.5

NYY run line. Cover in 34.5% of worlds.

34.5%

+0.8

BOS +1.5

BOS +1.5. Dog covers 65.5%.

65.5%

-0.8

Over 10.5

Mean total 10.82. Over hits 47.5%.

47.5%

-2.5

NYY

NYY moneyline — 47.4% of 8,000 plate-appearance sims.

47.3%

-7.0

Score distribution

Total runs across 8,000 worlds

4–5 2.2%4–3 2.2%3–4 2.1%5–4 1.9%2–3 1.8%3–2 1.7%

How the game can go

Floor, median, and ceiling scripts sampled from the engine

floorBOS 0–2 NYY

BOS 0–2 NYY · NYY wins

T7 · NYY bullpen enters
B7 · BOS bullpen enters

medianBOS 7–3 NYY

BOS 7–3 NYY · BOS wins

T3 · BOS 1-hole 2-run HR
T6 · BOS 4-hole 2-run HR
B6 · BOS bullpen enters
T7 · NYY bullpen enters

ceilingBOS 16–11 NYY

BOS 16–11 NYY · BOS wins

B1 · NYY 4-hole grand slam
T3 · BOS 2-hole 2-run HR
T3 · BOS 7-hole 2-run HR
T4 · NYY bullpen enters
B4 · BOS bullpen enters

Weather physics

Temp77°F · Cloudy

Wind10 mph Out To LF

Out to CF5.5 mph

Density alt.1,464 ft

HR multiplier1.34x

HumidorOff

Park318/408/314 · RF 1.04

Umpire shadow zone

Home plateVic Carapazza

Zonewide

K adj4.8%

BB adj-3.8%

Sampled called-strike rate above league. Mild Under lean.

Bullpen & decay

BOS fatigue41

NYY fatigue31

Away last-3 ERA3.52

Home last-3 ERA6.23

BOS rest0d

NYY rest0d

F5 home39.0%

Starter Ks7.8 / 7.4

Pitch mix vs order

Will Warren vs BOS

Sinker 38%xwOBA 0.330

Slider 24%xwOBA 0.290

Changeup 22%xwOBA 0.300

Four-seam 16%xwOBA 0.340

Ranger Suarez vs NYY

Sinker 40%xwOBA 0.330

Changeup 30%xwOBA 0.280

Slider 20%xwOBA 0.300

Curve 10%xwOBA 0.300

Player markets

Ranger Suarez

Pitcher strikeouts 7.5

Over 44.4%

+125 fair

Will Warren

Pitcher strikeouts 6.5

Over 49.2%

+103 fair

BOS team

Team home run 0.5

Over 78.3%

-362 fair

NYY team

Team home run 0.5

Over 74.8%

-297 fair

Desk card

TRUELINE · BOS @ NYY · Yankee Stadium
Wind is blowing out at 10 mph — ball flight is up. Density altitude 1,464 ft, HR multiplier 1.34x.
Vic Carapazza runs a wide zone (5% K). Unders get a bump.
Ranger Suarez looks stable (ERA 3.64, 8.7 K/9). Will Warren's last three starts ERA 6.23 vs season 4.23.
Bullpen fatigue BOS 41 / NYY 31.
8,000 plate-appearance sims. Mean total 10.82 vs line 10.5. Home win 47.4%.
No 80% ticket. Best posted side BOS at 52.7%. Suggestions (not on the record): BOS +1.5 65.6%; Under 12.5 66.5%.

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