BoardFirst pitch

Angel Stadium · Mon, 9:38 PM EDT · official lock Aug 31, 8:38 PM EDT

NYY at LAA

8,000 plate-appearance simulations · 155 ms

The desk sat

Don't bet this game

Don't bet. Best posted side is Over 8 at 63% — under the 80% floor.

Official tickets only at ≥80%. Sitting is the product — not a missing pick.

65% desk plays

Not official locks. Hit and miss live on this book only — never in the 80% win–loss record.

NYY +1.5
NYY +1.5 leans 67%. Desk play — not on the official record.
67.4%
Open

NYY

78–59 · 4.54 RS/G · 3.69 RA/G

56.3%

true win

Elmer Rodríguez (R) · 4.70 ERA · last-3 4.40 · 6.3 K/9 · 1.52 WHIP

LAA

52–85 · 4.05 RS/G · 4.65 RA/G

43.8%

true win

Walbert Ureña (R) · 2.94 ERA · last-3 3.68 · 8.7 K/9 · 1.29 WHIP

True home

43.8%

+129

True away

56.3%

-129

Mean total

10.67

median 10 · line 8

Books

Book	NYY ML	LAA ML	Run line	Total	Over	Under
DraftKingsshade	-116	+116	LAA -1.5 +249	8	-100	-100
FanDuelshade	-112	+109	LAA -1.5 +238	8	+100	-102
BetMGMshade	-120	+118	LAA -1.5 +251	8	-104	+103
Caesarsshade	-115	+112	LAA -1.5 +235	8	-102	+101
Fanaticsshade	-125	+117	LAA -1.5 +237	8	-101	-102
TRUELINE fair	-129	+129	+207	10.7	-169	+228

Edges vs market

Over 8

Mean total 10.67. Over hits 62.8%.

62.8%

+12.8

LAA -1.5

LAA run line. Cover in 32.6% of worlds.

32.6%

+3.9

NYY

NYY moneyline — 56.3% true.

56.3%

+2.5

LAA

LAA moneyline — 43.8% of 8,000 plate-appearance sims.

43.8%

-2.5

NYY +1.5

NYY +1.5. Dog covers 67.4%.

67.4%

-3.9

Under 8

Under 8 in 30.5% of sims.

30.5%

-19.5

Score distribution

Total runs across 8,000 worlds

4–3 1.9%4–5 1.8%3–2 1.8%5–4 1.7%2–3 1.7%3–4 1.7%

How the game can go

Floor, median, and ceiling scripts sampled from the engine

floorNYY 0–1 LAA

NYY 0–1 LAA · LAA wins

T7 · LAA bullpen enters
B7 · NYY bullpen enters

medianNYY 10–3 LAA

NYY 10–3 LAA · NYY wins

B3 · LAA 1-hole 2-run HR
T5 · LAA bullpen enters
B6 · NYY bullpen enters
T9 · NYY 7-hole solo HR

ceilingNYY 14–7 LAA

NYY 14–7 LAA · NYY wins

T1 · NYY 1-hole 3-run HR
T4 · NYY 6-hole 2-run HR
T4 · LAA bullpen enters
T6 · NYY 9-hole 3-run HR
B6 · NYY bullpen enters

Weather physics

Temp72°F · Clear

Wind0 mph Calm

Out to CF0.0 mph

Density alt.1,190 ft

HR multiplier1.01x

HumidorOff

Park330/396/330 · RF 0.97

Umpire shadow zone

Home plateLeague Average

Zonetight

K adj-3.6%

BB adj2.9%

Sampled zone runs small. Mild Over lean.

Bullpen & decay

NYY fatigue21

LAA fatigue33

Away last-3 ERA4.40

Home last-3 ERA3.68

NYY rest0d

LAA rest0d

F5 home41.2%

Starter Ks7.0 / 8.2

Pitch mix vs order

Walbert Ureña vs NYY

Sinker 38%xwOBA 0.330

Slider 24%xwOBA 0.290

Changeup 22%xwOBA 0.300

Four-seam 16%xwOBA 0.340

Elmer Rodríguez vs LAA

Sinker 38%xwOBA 0.330

Slider 24%xwOBA 0.290

Changeup 22%xwOBA 0.300

Four-seam 16%xwOBA 0.340

Player markets

Elmer Rodríguez

Pitcher strikeouts 6.5

Over 46.0%

+117 fair

Walbert Ureña

Pitcher strikeouts 7.5

Over 47.6%

+110 fair

NYY team

Team home run 0.5

Over 71.1%

-246 fair

LAA team

Team home run 0.5

Over 60.1%

-151 fair

Desk card

TRUELINE · NYY @ LAA · Angel Stadium
Wind is a cross/neutral 0 mph. Density altitude 1,190 ft, HR multiplier 1.01x.
League Average squeezes the zone (walks +3%). Offense wakes up.
Elmer Rodríguez looks stable (ERA 4.70, 6.3 K/9). Walbert Ureña looks stable (ERA 2.94, 8.7 K/9).
Bullpen fatigue NYY 21 / LAA 33.
8,000 plate-appearance sims. Mean total 10.67 vs line 8. Home win 43.8%.
No 80% ticket. Best posted side Over 8 at 62.8%. Suggestions (not on the record): NYY +1.5 67.4%.

Unlock the desk

$39/mo or $299/yr for the full 65% book, Markets True, game lab, snapshots, and alerts. Official 80% tickets and the sit count stay public.