BoardFinal

Truist Park · Aug 30, 1:35 PM EDT

COL at ATL

8,000 plate-appearance simulations · 116 ms

2–3

The desk sat

Don't bet this game

Don't bet. Best posted side is ATL at 66% — under the 80% floor.

Official tickets only at ≥80%. Sitting is the product — not a missing pick.

65% desk plays

Not official locks. Hit and miss live on this book only — never in the 80% win–loss record.

ATL
ATL moneyline leans 68%. Suggestion only — not on the record.
Final 2–3
68.3%
Hit

COL

52–85 · 4.70 RS/G · 5.74 RA/G

32.6%

true win

Mason Adams (R) · 3.00 ERA · 10.0 K/9 · 1.44 WHIP

ATL

82–55 · 4.64 RS/G · 3.79 RA/G

67.4%

true win

Tyler Mahle (R) · 4.25 ERA · last-3 2.04 · 8.7 K/9 · 1.29 WHIP

True home

67.4%

-207

True away

32.6%

+207

Mean total

11.57

median 11 · line 10.5

Books

Book	COL ML	ATL ML	Run line	Total	Over	Under
DraftKingsshade	+244	-244	ATL -1.5 +128	10.5	-100	-100
FanDuelshade	+254	-262	ATL -1.5 +123	10.5	+100	-102
BetMGMshade	+240	-231	ATL -1.5 +133	10.5	-102	+103
Caesarsshade	+247	-254	ATL -1.5 +122	10.5	-102	+101
Fanaticsshade	+237	-220	ATL -1.5 +131	10.5	+106	-102
TRUELINE fair	+207	-207	-119	11.6	-115	+115

Edges vs market

ATL -1.5

ATL run line. Cover in 54.4% of worlds.

54.4%

+10.6

Over 10.5

Mean total 11.57. Over hits 53.5%.

53.5%

+3.5

COL

COL moneyline — 32.6% true.

32.6%

+3.5

ATL

ATL moneyline — 67.4% of 8,000 plate-appearance sims.

67.4%

-3.5

Under 10.5

Under 10.5 in 46.5% of sims.

46.5%

-3.5

COL +1.5

COL +1.5. Dog covers 45.6%.

45.6%

-10.6

Score distribution

Total runs across 8,000 worlds

3–4 2.1%4–5 2%5–6 2%3–5 1.8%5–4 1.7%2–4 1.6%

How the game can go

Floor, median, and ceiling scripts sampled from the engine

floorCOL 0–7 ATL

COL 0–7 ATL · ATL wins

B5 · COL bullpen enters
B6 · ATL 2-hole solo HR
T7 · ATL bullpen enters
B8 · ATL 2-hole 2-run HR

medianCOL 6–5 ATL

COL 6–5 ATL · COL wins

T6 · ATL bullpen enters
B7 · COL bullpen enters

ceilingCOL 12–7 ATL

COL 12–7 ATL · COL wins

T2 · COL 6-hole 2-run HR
T2 · COL 8-hole 2-run HR
B2 · ATL 7-hole 2-run HR
B2 · ATL 8-hole solo HR
T4 · COL 9-hole 2-run HR

Weather physics

Temp86°F · Partly Cloudy

Wind6 mph L To R

Out to CF0.0 mph

Density alt.3,293 ft

HR multiplier1.24x

HumidorOff

Park335/400/325 · RF 1.02

Umpire shadow zone

Home plateDavid Rackley

Zonetight

K adj-3.6%

BB adj2.9%

Sampled zone runs small. Mild Over lean.

Bullpen & decay

COL fatigue32

ATL fatigue19

Away last-3 ERA—

Home last-3 ERA2.04

COL rest0d

ATL rest0d

F5 home60.0%

Starter Ks7.3 / 7.3

Pitch mix vs order

Tyler Mahle vs COL

Sinker 38%xwOBA 0.330

Slider 24%xwOBA 0.290

Changeup 22%xwOBA 0.300

Four-seam 16%xwOBA 0.340

Mason Adams vs ATL

Four-seam 46%xwOBA 0.320

Slider 30%xwOBA 0.260

Changeup 14%xwOBA 0.300

Curve 10%xwOBA 0.280

Player markets

Mason Adams

Pitcher strikeouts 6.5

Over 48.4%

+107 fair

Tyler Mahle

Pitcher strikeouts 6.5

Over 48.4%

+107 fair

COL team

Team home run 0.5

Over 71.1%

-246 fair

ATL team

Team home run 0.5

Over 89.8%

-878 fair

Desk card

TRUELINE · COL @ ATL · Truist Park
Wind is a cross/neutral 6 mph. Density altitude 3,293 ft, HR multiplier 1.24x.
David Rackley squeezes the zone (walks +3%). Offense wakes up.
Mason Adams looks stable (ERA 3.00, 10.0 K/9). Tyler Mahle looks stable (ERA 4.25, 8.7 K/9).
Bullpen fatigue COL 32 / ATL 19.
8,000 plate-appearance sims. Mean total 11.57 vs line 10.5. Home win 67.4%.
No 80% ticket. Best posted side ATL at 67.4%. Suggestions (not on the record): ATL 68.3%.

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