BoardFinal

Citi Field · Aug 30, 3:10 PM EDT

HOU at NYM

8,000 plate-appearance simulations · 179 ms

6–3

The desk sat

Don't bet this game

Don't bet. Best posted side is Over 9.5 at 75% — under the 80% floor.

Official tickets only at ≥80%. Sitting is the product — not a missing pick.

65% desk plays

Not official locks. Hit and miss live on this book only — never in the 80% win–loss record.

Over 9.5
Over 9.5 leans 69%. Suggestion only — not on the record.
Final 6–3
69.4%
Miss

HOU

69–68 · 4.55 RS/G · 4.87 RA/G

30.6%

true win

Ethan Pecko (R) · 6.23 ERA · last-3 7.88 · 6.2 K/9 · 1.54 WHIP

NYM

61–76 · 4.10 RS/G · 4.49 RA/G

69.4%

true win

Zac Thornton (L) · 2.93 ERA · last-3 3.71 · 6.6 K/9 · 1.16 WHIP

True home

69.4%

-227

True away

30.6%

+227

Mean total

13.94

median 13 · line 9.5

Books

Book	HOU ML	NYM ML	Run line	Total	Over	Under
DraftKingsshade	+344	-344	NYM -1.5 +108	9.5	-100	-100
FanDuelshade	+377	-352	NYM -1.5 +108	9.5	+104	-102
BetMGMshade	+328	-335	NYM -1.5 +109	9.5	-104	+103
Caesarsshade	+364	-340	NYM -1.5 +107	9.5	+101	+101
Fanaticsshade	+327	-313	NYM -1.5 +109	9.5	+104	-102
TRUELINE fair	+227	-227	-145	13.9	-298	+298

Edges vs market

Over 9.5

Mean total 13.94. Over hits 74.9%.

74.9%

+24.9

NYM -1.5

NYM run line. Cover in 59.2% of worlds.

59.2%

+11.1

HOU

HOU moneyline — 30.6% true.

30.6%

+8.1

NYM

NYM moneyline — 69.4% of 8,000 plate-appearance sims.

69.4%

-8.1

HOU +1.5

HOU +1.5. Dog covers 40.9%.

40.8%

-11.1

Under 9.5

Under 9.5 in 25.1% of sims.

25.1%

-24.9

Score distribution

Total runs across 8,000 worlds

4–5 1.7%4–6 1.4%5–6 1.4%3–5 1.3%6–7 1.3%5–7 1.2%

How the game can go

Floor, median, and ceiling scripts sampled from the engine

floorHOU 1–4 NYM

HOU 1–4 NYM · NYM wins

B3 · NYM 2-hole 3-run HR
B5 · HOU bullpen enters
T7 · NYM bullpen enters

medianHOU 2–10 NYM

HOU 2–10 NYM · NYM wins

B1 · NYM 2-hole 2-run HR
B4 · HOU bullpen enters
B4 · NYM 6-hole grand slam
T6 · NYM bullpen enters

ceilingHOU 10–12 NYM

HOU 10–12 NYM · NYM wins

B1 · NYM 2-hole 2-run HR
B4 · NYM 2-hole grand slam
B4 · NYM 4-hole solo HR
T5 · HOU 2-hole 2-run HR
B5 · HOU bullpen enters

Weather physics

Temp81°F · Cloudy

Wind9 mph Out To CF

Out to CF9.0 mph

Density alt.1,691 ft

HR multiplier1.14x

HumidorOff

Park335/408/330 · RF 0.95

Umpire shadow zone

Home plateNate Tomlinson

Zonetight

K adj-3.0%

BB adj2.4%

Sampled zone runs small. Mild Over lean.

Bullpen & decay

HOU fatigue38

NYM fatigue25

Away last-3 ERA7.88

Home last-3 ERA3.71

HOU rest0d

NYM rest0d

F5 home68.2%

Starter Ks5.8 / 5.8

Pitch mix vs order

Zac Thornton vs HOU

Sinker 40%xwOBA 0.330

Changeup 30%xwOBA 0.280

Slider 20%xwOBA 0.300

Curve 10%xwOBA 0.300

Ethan Pecko vs NYM

Sinker 38%xwOBA 0.330

Slider 24%xwOBA 0.290

Changeup 22%xwOBA 0.300

Four-seam 16%xwOBA 0.340

Player markets

Ethan Pecko

Pitcher strikeouts 5.5

Over 44.4%

+125 fair

Zac Thornton

Pitcher strikeouts 5.5

Over 44.4%

+125 fair

HOU team

Team home run 0.5

Over 76.8%

-331 fair

NYM team

Team home run 0.5

Over 90.5%

-949 fair

Desk card

TRUELINE · HOU @ NYM · Citi Field
Wind is blowing out at 9 mph — ball flight is up. Density altitude 1,691 ft, HR multiplier 1.14x.
Nate Tomlinson squeezes the zone (walks +2%). Offense wakes up.
Ethan Pecko's last three starts ERA 7.88 vs season 6.23. Zac Thornton looks stable (ERA 2.93, 6.6 K/9).
Bullpen fatigue HOU 38 / NYM 25.
8,000 plate-appearance sims. Mean total 13.94 vs line 9.5. Home win 69.4%.
No 80% ticket. Best posted side Over 9.5 at 74.9%. Suggestions (not on the record): Over 9.5 69.4%.

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