BoardFinal

American Family Field · Aug 30, 2:10 PM EDT

TEX at MIL

8,000 plate-appearance simulations · 130 ms

7–4

The desk sat

Don't bet this game

Don't bet. Best posted side is MIL at 55% — under the 80% floor.

Official tickets only at ≥80%. Sitting is the product — not a missing pick.

65% desk plays

Not official locks. Hit and miss live on this book only — never in the 80% win–loss record.

Under 12.5
Under 12.5 leans 68% (alternate). Suggestion only — not on the record.
Final 7–4
68.0%
Hit

TEX

67–70 · 4.04 RS/G · 4.42 RA/G

44.6%

true win

Kumar Rocker (R) · 4.44 ERA · last-3 4.02 · 8.6 K/9 · 1.43 WHIP

MIL

85–52 · 4.99 RS/G · 3.69 RA/G

55.4%

true win

Dustin May (R) · 4.69 ERA · last-3 7.71 · 8.5 K/9 · 1.32 WHIP

True home

55.4%

-124

True away

44.6%

+124

Mean total

10.66

median 10 · line 10.5

Books

Book	TEX ML	MIL ML	Run line	Total	Over	Under
DraftKingsshade	+323	-323	MIL -1.5 +111	10.5	-100	-100
FanDuelshade	+336	-356	MIL -1.5 +106	10.5	-100	-102
BetMGMshade	+312	-309	MIL -1.5 +114	10.5	-103	+103
Caesarsshade	+325	-344	MIL -1.5 +105	10.5	-103	+101
Fanaticsshade	+308	-295	MIL -1.5 +112	10.5	+104	-102
TRUELINE fair	+124	-124	+139	10.7	+114	-114

Edges vs market

TEX

TEX moneyline — 44.6% true.

44.6%

+21.0

TEX +1.5

TEX +1.5. Dog covers 58.2%.

58.1%

+5.5

Under 10.5

Under 10.5 in 53.3% of sims.

53.3%

+3.3

Over 10.5

Mean total 10.66. Over hits 46.7%.

46.7%

-3.3

MIL -1.5

MIL run line. Cover in 41.9% of worlds.

41.9%

-5.5

MIL

MIL moneyline — 55.4% of 8,000 plate-appearance sims.

55.4%

-21.0

Score distribution

Total runs across 8,000 worlds

3–4 2.3%3–5 2.1%2–3 2.1%4–3 2%4–5 1.9%5–6 1.9%

How the game can go

Floor, median, and ceiling scripts sampled from the engine

floorTEX 0–4 MIL

TEX 0–4 MIL · MIL wins

B5 · MIL 2-hole grand slam
B6 · TEX bullpen enters
T7 · MIL bullpen enters

medianTEX 6–3 MIL

TEX 6–3 MIL · TEX wins

T1 · TEX 4-hole 3-run HR
T5 · MIL bullpen enters
B6 · TEX bullpen enters

ceilingTEX 11–10 MIL

TEX 11–10 MIL · TEX wins

T4 · TEX 4-hole 2-run HR
T5 · MIL bullpen enters
B6 · TEX bullpen enters
B6 · MIL 5-hole 2-run HR
T8 · TEX 6-hole 3-run HR

Weather physics

Temp87°F · Partly Cloudy

Wind15 mph R To L

Out to CF0.0 mph

Density alt.2,873 ft

HR multiplier1.29x

HumidorOff

Park344/400/345 · RF 1.03

Umpire shadow zone

Home plateBrennan Miller

Zoneaverage

K adj0.0%

BB adj0.0%

No extreme strike-zone signal in the sample.

Bullpen & decay

TEX fatigue34

MIL fatigue24

Away last-3 ERA4.02

Home last-3 ERA7.71

TEX rest0d

MIL rest0d

F5 home49.1%

Starter Ks7.0 / 7.2

Pitch mix vs order

Dustin May vs TEX

Sinker 38%xwOBA 0.330

Slider 24%xwOBA 0.290

Changeup 22%xwOBA 0.300

Four-seam 16%xwOBA 0.340

Kumar Rocker vs MIL

Sinker 38%xwOBA 0.330

Slider 24%xwOBA 0.290

Changeup 22%xwOBA 0.300

Four-seam 16%xwOBA 0.340

Player markets

Kumar Rocker

Pitcher strikeouts 6.5

Over 46.0%

+117 fair

Dustin May

Pitcher strikeouts 6.5

Over 47.6%

+110 fair

TEX team

Team home run 0.5

Over 69.6%

-229 fair

MIL team

Team home run 0.5

Over 70.5%

-239 fair

Desk card

TRUELINE · TEX @ MIL · American Family Field
Wind is a cross/neutral 15 mph. Density altitude 2,873 ft, HR multiplier 1.29x.
Brennan Miller is a neutral zone. Matchup and weather dominate.
Kumar Rocker looks stable (ERA 4.44, 8.6 K/9). Dustin May's last three starts ERA 7.71 vs season 4.69.
Bullpen fatigue TEX 34 / MIL 24.
8,000 plate-appearance sims. Mean total 10.66 vs line 10.5. Home win 55.4%.
No 80% ticket. Best posted side MIL at 55.4%. Suggestions (not on the record): Under 12.5 68%.

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