TRUELINE
BoardFinal

Sutter Health Park · Aug 30, 4:05 PM EDT

BAL at ATH

8,000 plate-appearance simulations · 176 ms

8–5
The desk sat
Don't bet this game

Don't bet. Best posted side is BAL at 66% — under the 80% floor.

Official tickets only at ≥80%. Sitting is the product — not a missing pick.

65% desk plays

Not official locks. Hit and miss live on this book only — never in the 80% win–loss record.

  • BAL +1.5

    BAL +1.5 leans 76%. Suggestion only — not on the record.

    Final 8–5

    76.4%
    Hit
  • BAL

    BAL moneyline leans 66%. Suggestion only — not on the record.

    Final 8–5

    66.3%
    Hit
BAL
68–69 · 4.57 RS/G · 4.70 RA/G
65.9%
true win
Chris Bassitt (R) · 4.97 ERA · last-3 3.06 · 6.2 K/9 · 1.58 WHIP
ATH
53–84 · 4.35 RS/G · 5.74 RA/G
34.1%
true win
Jeffrey Springs (L) · 6.37 ERA · last-3 5.02 · 7.2 K/9 · 1.50 WHIP
True home
34.1%
+193
True away
65.9%
-193
Mean total
12.63
median 12 · line 12

Books

BookBAL MLATH MLRun lineTotalOverUnder
DraftKingsshade-251+251ATH -1.5 +25712-100-100
FanDuelshade-237+239ATH -1.5 +25112+102-102
BetMGMshade-257+265ATH -1.5 +26712-102+103
Caesarsshade-244+246ATH -1.5 +24712-101+101
Fanaticsshade-259+278ATH -1.5 +26312+105-102
TRUELINE fair-193+193+31312.6+112+114

Edges vs market

ATH
ATH moneyline — 34.1% of 8,000 plate-appearance sims.
34.1%
+5.6
BAL +1.5
BAL +1.5. Dog covers 75.8%.
75.8%
+3.8
Over 12
Mean total 12.63. Over hits 47.1%.
47.1%
-2.9
Under 12
Under 12 in 46.6% of sims.
46.6%
-3.4
ATH -1.5
ATH run line. Cover in 24.2% of worlds.
24.2%
-3.8
BAL
BAL moneyline — 65.9% true.
65.9%
-5.6

Score distribution

Total runs across 8,000 worlds

6–5 1.5%5–4 1.4%6–7 1.4%4–3 1.4%4–5 1.4%5–6 1.4%

How the game can go

Floor, median, and ceiling scripts sampled from the engine

floorBAL 1–5 ATH

BAL 1–5 ATH · ATH wins

  • T6 · ATH bullpen enters
  • B7 · BAL bullpen enters
medianBAL 9–3 ATH

BAL 9–3 ATH · BAL wins

  • T2 · BAL 7-hole 2-run HR
  • B4 · ATH 4-hole 2-run HR
  • T6 · ATH bullpen enters
  • B6 · BAL bullpen enters
  • T7 · BAL 7-hole 3-run HR
ceilingBAL 18–5 ATH

BAL 18–5 ATH · BAL wins

  • B1 · ATH 1-hole solo HR
  • T3 · BAL 7-hole 3-run HR
  • T5 · ATH bullpen enters
  • T6 · BAL 7-hole grand slam
  • B6 · BAL bullpen enters

Weather physics

Temp82°F · Sunny
Wind4 mph Out To LF
Out to CF2.2 mph
Density alt.1,705 ft
HR multiplier1.19x
HumidorOff
Park330/403/325 · RF 1.05

Umpire shadow zone

Home plateDoug Eddings
Zoneaverage
K adj2.0%
BB adj-2.0%

Pitcher-friendly on the outer third.

Bullpen & decay

BAL fatigue30
ATH fatigue37
Away last-3 ERA3.06
Home last-3 ERA5.02
BAL rest0d
ATH rest0d
F5 home30.5%
Starter Ks6.5 / 7.7

Pitch mix vs order

Jeffrey Springs vs BAL
Sinker 40%xwOBA 0.330
Changeup 30%xwOBA 0.280
Slider 20%xwOBA 0.300
Curve 10%xwOBA 0.300
Chris Bassitt vs ATH
Sinker 38%xwOBA 0.330
Slider 24%xwOBA 0.290
Changeup 22%xwOBA 0.300
Four-seam 16%xwOBA 0.340

Player markets

Chris Bassitt
Pitcher strikeouts 6.5
Over 42.0%
+138 fair
Jeffrey Springs
Pitcher strikeouts 7.5
Over 43.6%
+129 fair
BAL team
Team home run 0.5
Over 91.7%
-1106 fair
ATH team
Team home run 0.5
Over 70.5%
-239 fair

Desk card

TRUELINE · BAL @ ATH · Sutter Health Park
Wind is a cross/neutral 4 mph. Density altitude 1,705 ft, HR multiplier 1.19x.
Doug Eddings is a neutral zone. Matchup and weather dominate.
Chris Bassitt looks stable (ERA 4.97, 6.2 K/9). Jeffrey Springs looks stable (ERA 6.37, 7.2 K/9).
Bullpen fatigue BAL 30 / ATH 37.
8,000 plate-appearance sims. Mean total 12.63 vs line 12. Home win 34.1%.
No 80% ticket. Best posted side BAL at 65.9%. Suggestions (not on the record): BAL +1.5 76.4%; BAL 66.3%.
Unlock the desk

$39/mo or $299/yr for the full 65% book, Markets True, game lab, snapshots, and alerts. Official 80% tickets and the sit count stay public.