BoardFinal
Fenway Park · Aug 21, 7:10 PM EDT
SF at BOS
8,000 plate-appearance simulations · 118 ms
4–6
We told you to bet
Under 11.5
80.6% of worlds · fair -415 · 0.5u · Bet Under 11.5. 81% of simulated games hit it (mean total 8.0 vs posted 8). Ask the book for this alternate.
No posted book (alternate) · fair -415 · 0.5u · final 4–6
Final 4–6 — correct.
Locked snapshot
Frozen at lock. Does not update after the final.
Mean 8.0 vs line 8True 47.6% / 52.4%69° · 5 mph windJohn Libka · averageLogan Webb / Sonny Gray1,600 sims locked
65% desk plays
Not official locks. Hit and miss live on this book only — never in the 80% win–loss record.
- Under 9.5
Under 9.5 leans 67% (alternate). Suggestion only — not on the record.
Final 4–6
67.1%Miss
SF
56–81 · 4.09 RS/G · 4.63 RA/G
47.7%
true win
Logan Webb (R) · 3.72 ERA · last-3 0.90 · 7.2 K/9 · 1.10 WHIP
BOS
74–63 · 4.45 RS/G · 3.83 RA/G
52.3%
true win
Sonny Gray (R) · 2.82 ERA · last-3 0.95 · 8.0 K/9 · 1.18 WHIP
True home
52.3%
-110
True away
47.7%
+110
Mean total
7.97
median 7 · line 8
Books
| Book | SF ML | BOS ML | Run line | Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKingsshade | +349 | -349 | BOS -1.5 +108 | 8 | -100 | -100 |
| FanDuelshade | +378 | -364 | BOS -1.5 +107 | 8 | +103 | -102 |
| BetMGMshade | +332 | -340 | BOS -1.5 +109 | 8 | -104 | +103 |
| Caesarsshade | +364 | -352 | BOS -1.5 +105 | 8 | -100 | +101 |
| Fanaticsshade | +335 | -313 | BOS -1.5 +110 | 8 | +105 | -102 |
| TRUELINE fair | +110 | -110 | +178 | 8.0 | +143 | -435 |
Edges vs market
Under 11.5
Under 11.5 hits in 81.3% of 8,000 worlds (mean 8.0).
81.3%
+1.3SF
SF moneyline — 47.7% true.
47.7%
+25.5SF +1.5
SF +1.5. Dog covers 64%.
64.0%
+12.1Under 8
Under 8 in 51.3% of sims.
51.3%
+1.3Over 8
Mean total 7.97. Over hits 41.1%.
41.1%
-8.9BOS -1.5
BOS run line. Cover in 36% of worlds.
36.0%
-12.1BOS
BOS moneyline — 52.3% of 8,000 plate-appearance sims.
52.3%
-25.5Score distribution
Total runs across 8,000 worlds
2–3 3.3%1–2 3.1%3–4 2.9%3–2 2.7%4–3 2.5%2–1 2.5%
How the game can go
Floor, median, and ceiling scripts sampled from the engine
floorSF 0–1 BOS
SF 0–1 BOS · BOS wins
- T7 · BOS bullpen enters
- B7 · SF bullpen enters
medianSF 4–3 BOS
SF 4–3 BOS · SF wins
- T6 · BOS bullpen enters
- B7 · SF bullpen enters
- B9 · BOS 7-hole 2-run HR
ceilingSF 10–8 BOS
SF 10–8 BOS · SF wins
- T4 · SF 7-hole 2-run HR
- T5 · BOS bullpen enters
- B6 · SF bullpen enters
- B8 · BOS 1-hole solo HR
Weather physics
Temp69°F · Overcast
Wind5 mph In From CF
Out to CF-5.0 mph
Density alt.830 ft
HR multiplier0.89x
HumidorOff
Park310/420/302 · RF 1.07
Umpire shadow zone
Home plateJohn Libka
Zoneaverage
K adj-1.8%
BB adj1.4%
No extreme strike-zone signal in the sample.
Bullpen & decay
SF fatigue35
BOS fatigue17
Away last-3 ERA0.90
Home last-3 ERA0.95
SF rest0d
BOS rest1d
F5 home43.2%
Starter Ks5.8 / 6.6
Pitch mix vs order
Sonny Gray vs SF
Sinker 38%xwOBA 0.330
Slider 24%xwOBA 0.290
Changeup 22%xwOBA 0.300
Four-seam 16%xwOBA 0.340
Logan Webb vs BOS
Sinker 38%xwOBA 0.330
Slider 24%xwOBA 0.290
Changeup 22%xwOBA 0.300
Four-seam 16%xwOBA 0.340
Player markets
Logan Webb
Pitcher strikeouts 5.5
Over 44.4%
+125 fair
Sonny Gray
Pitcher strikeouts 6.5
Over 42.8%
+134 fair
SF team
Team home run 0.5
Over 55.5%
-125 fair
BOS team
Team home run 0.5
Over 55.5%
-125 fair
Desk card
TRUELINE · SF @ BOS · Fenway Park Wind is blowing in at 5 mph — carry is dead. Density altitude 830 ft, HR multiplier 0.89x. John Libka is a neutral zone. Matchup and weather dominate. Logan Webb looks stable (ERA 3.72, 7.2 K/9). Sonny Gray looks stable (ERA 2.82, 8.0 K/9). Bullpen fatigue SF 35 / BOS 17. 8,000 plate-appearance sims. Mean total 7.97 vs line 8. Home win 52.3%. BET Under 11.5. Locked. Engine 80.6% — only tickets at ≥80% are published. Suggestions (not on the record): Under 9.5 67.1%.