TRUELINE
BoardFinal

Rogers Centre · Aug 30, 1:37 PM EDT

SEA at TOR

8,000 plate-appearance simulations · 135 ms

0–7
The desk sat
Don't bet this game

Don't bet. Best posted side is SEA at 65% — under the 80% floor.

Official tickets only at ≥80%. Sitting is the product — not a missing pick.

65% desk plays

Not official locks. Hit and miss live on this book only — never in the 80% win–loss record.

  • SEA +1.5

    SEA +1.5 leans 77%. Suggestion only — not on the record.

    Final 0–7

    77.1%
    Miss
  • Under 11.5

    Under 11.5 leans 66% (alternate). Suggestion only — not on the record.

    Final 0–7

    66.2%
    Hit
SEA
64–73 · 3.87 RS/G · 4.39 RA/G
65.8%
true win
Logan Gilbert (R) · 3.42 ERA · last-3 2.81 · 9.3 K/9 · 1.04 WHIP
TOR
68–70 · 3.97 RS/G · 4.33 RA/G
34.2%
true win
Max Scherzer (R) · 6.16 ERA · last-3 6.43 · 7.3 K/9 · 1.39 WHIP
True home
34.2%
+193
True away
65.8%
-193
Mean total
10.17
median 10 · line 9

Books

BookSEA MLTOR MLRun lineTotalOverUnder
DraftKingsshade-180+180TOR -1.5 +2579-100-100
FanDuelshade-173+169TOR -1.5 +2469+100-102
BetMGMshade-184+188TOR -1.5 +2669-102+103
Caesarsshade-178+173TOR -1.5 +2429-102+101
Fanaticsshade-186+195TOR -1.5 +2619+104-102
TRUELINE fair-193+193+33610.2+102+146

Edges vs market

SEA +1.5
SEA +1.5. Dog covers 77.1%.
77.1%
+5.1
SEA
SEA moneyline — 65.8% true.
65.8%
+1.5
Over 9
Mean total 10.17. Over hits 49.4%.
49.4%
-0.6
TOR
TOR moneyline — 34.2% of 8,000 plate-appearance sims.
34.2%
-1.5
TOR -1.5
TOR run line. Cover in 22.9% of worlds.
22.9%
-5.1
Under 9
Under 9 in 40.6% of sims.
40.6%
-9.4

Score distribution

Total runs across 8,000 worlds

5–4 2.2%4–3 2.1%4–2 2%2–3 1.9%3–4 1.9%4–5 1.8%

How the game can go

Floor, median, and ceiling scripts sampled from the engine

floorSEA 4–1 TOR

SEA 4–1 TOR · SEA wins

  • T1 · SEA 2-hole solo HR
  • T6 · TOR bullpen enters
  • B7 · SEA bullpen enters
medianSEA 8–4 TOR

SEA 8–4 TOR · SEA wins

  • B1 · TOR 5-hole 3-run HR
  • T5 · TOR bullpen enters
  • B7 · SEA bullpen enters
  • T9 · SEA 7-hole solo HR
ceilingSEA 12–8 TOR

SEA 12–8 TOR · SEA wins

  • T6 · TOR bullpen enters
  • B6 · SEA bullpen enters
  • T7 · SEA 7-hole 3-run HR
  • T7 · SEA 8-hole solo HR

Weather physics

Temp65°F · Cloudy
Wind2 mph Out To LF
Out to CF1.1 mph
Density alt.932 ft
HR multiplier1.07x
HumidorOff
Park328/400/328 · RF 1.02

Umpire shadow zone

Home plateSteven Jaschinski
Zonewide
K adj2.4%
BB adj-1.9%

Sampled called-strike rate above league. Mild Under lean.

Bullpen & decay

SEA fatigue31
TOR fatigue26
Away last-3 ERA2.81
Home last-3 ERA6.43
SEA rest0d
TOR rest0d
F5 home28.0%
Starter Ks6.7 / 6.7

Pitch mix vs order

Max Scherzer vs SEA
Sinker 38%xwOBA 0.330
Slider 24%xwOBA 0.290
Changeup 22%xwOBA 0.300
Four-seam 16%xwOBA 0.340
Logan Gilbert vs TOR
Sinker 38%xwOBA 0.330
Slider 24%xwOBA 0.290
Changeup 22%xwOBA 0.300
Four-seam 16%xwOBA 0.340

Player markets

Logan Gilbert
Pitcher strikeouts 6.5
Over 43.6%
+129 fair
Max Scherzer
Pitcher strikeouts 6.5
Over 43.6%
+129 fair
SEA team
Team home run 0.5
Over 81.2%
-431 fair
TOR team
Team home run 0.5
Over 61.7%
-161 fair

Desk card

TRUELINE · SEA @ TOR · Rogers Centre
Wind is a cross/neutral 2 mph. Density altitude 932 ft, HR multiplier 1.07x.
Steven Jaschinski runs a wide zone (2% K). Unders get a bump.
Logan Gilbert looks stable (ERA 3.42, 9.3 K/9). Max Scherzer looks stable (ERA 6.16, 7.3 K/9).
Bullpen fatigue SEA 31 / TOR 26.
8,000 plate-appearance sims. Mean total 10.17 vs line 9. Home win 34.2%.
No 80% ticket. Best posted side SEA at 65.8%. Suggestions (not on the record): SEA +1.5 77.1%; Under 11.5 66.2%.
Unlock the desk

$39/mo or $299/yr for the full 65% book, Markets True, game lab, snapshots, and alerts. Official 80% tickets and the sit count stay public.