Globe Life Field · Aug 21, 8:15 PM EDT

LAA at TEX

8,000 plate-appearance simulations · 113 ms

1–2

We told you to bet

Under 11.5

80.8% of worlds · fair -421 · 0.5u · Bet Under 11.5. 81% of simulated games hit it (mean total 8.1 vs posted 8.5). Ask the book for this alternate.

No posted book (alternate) · fair -421 · 0.5u · final 1–2

Final 1–2 — correct.

Correct

Locked snapshot

Frozen at lock. Does not update after the final.

Mean 8.1 vs line 8.5True 51.2% / 48.8%74° · 0 mph windAndy Fletcher · tightReid Detmers / MacKenzie Gore1,600 sims locked

65% desk plays

Not official locks. Hit and miss live on this book only — never in the 80% win–loss record.

Under 9.5
Under 9.5 leans 69% (alternate). Suggestion only — not on the record.
Final 1–2
68.8%
Hit
LAA +1.5
LAA +1.5 leans 66%. Suggestion only — not on the record.
Final 1–2
65.9%
Hit

LAA

52–85 · 4.05 RS/G · 4.65 RA/G

50.5%

true win

Reid Detmers (L) · 3.54 ERA · last-3 2.00 · 10.1 K/9 · 1.07 WHIP

TEX

67–70 · 4.04 RS/G · 4.42 RA/G

49.5%

true win

MacKenzie Gore (L) · 4.40 ERA · last-3 2.12 · 9.9 K/9 · 1.28 WHIP

True home

49.5%

+102

True away

50.5%

-102

Mean total

8.26

median 7 · line 8.5

Books

Book	LAA ML	TEX ML	Run line	Total	Over	Under
DraftKingsshade	+106	-106	TEX -1.5 +213	8.5	-100	-100
FanDuelshade	+109	-113	TEX -1.5 +204	8.5	-100	-102
BetMGMshade	+103	-103	TEX -1.5 +218	8.5	-103	+103
Caesarsshade	+107	-110	TEX -1.5 +201	8.5	-103	+101
Fanaticsshade	+102	+100	TEX -1.5 +214	8.5	+104	-102
TRUELINE fair	-102	+102	+186	8.3	+128	-421

Edges vs market

Under 11.5

Bet Under 11.5. 81% of simulated games hit it (mean total 8.1 vs posted 8.5). Ask the book for this alternate.

80.8%

+0.8

Under 8.5

Under 8.5 in 56.1% of sims.

56.1%

+6.1

TEX -1.5

TEX run line. Cover in 34.9% of worlds.

34.9%

+3.0

LAA

LAA moneyline — 50.5% true.

50.5%

+1.9

TEX

TEX moneyline — 49.5% of 8,000 plate-appearance sims.

49.5%

-1.9

LAA +1.5

LAA +1.5. Dog covers 65.1%.

65.1%

-3.0

Over 8.5

Mean total 8.26. Over hits 43.9%.

43.9%

-6.1

Score distribution

Total runs across 8,000 worlds

2–3 2.9%3–2 2.9%3–4 2.5%1–2 2.5%4–3 2.3%1–3 2.2%

How the game can go

Floor, median, and ceiling scripts sampled from the engine

floorLAA 1–0 TEX

LAA 1–0 TEX · LAA wins

T6 · TEX bullpen enters
B7 · LAA bullpen enters

medianLAA 4–5 TEX

LAA 4–5 TEX · TEX wins

T4 · LAA 6-hole 2-run HR
T5 · LAA 9-hole 2-run HR
T7 · TEX bullpen enters
B7 · LAA bullpen enters

ceilingLAA 7–11 TEX

LAA 7–11 TEX · TEX wins

T1 · LAA 2-hole 2-run HR
B5 · LAA bullpen enters
T6 · LAA 5-hole 2-run HR
T6 · TEX bullpen enters

Weather physics

Temp74°F · Roof Closed

Wind0 mph None

Out to CF0.0 mph

Density alt.1,856 ft

HR multiplier1.02x

HumidorOn

Park329/407/326 · RF 0.98

Umpire shadow zone

Home plateAndy Fletcher

Zonetight

K adj-3.6%

BB adj2.9%

Sampled zone runs small. Mild Over lean.

Bullpen & decay

LAA fatigue30

TEX fatigue19

Away last-3 ERA2.00

Home last-3 ERA2.12

LAA rest0d

TEX rest0d

F5 home40.6%

Starter Ks7.9 / 8.7

Pitch mix vs order

MacKenzie Gore vs LAA

Four-seam 44%xwOBA 0.320

Slider 28%xwOBA 0.270

Changeup 18%xwOBA 0.280

Curve 10%xwOBA 0.290

Reid Detmers vs TEX

Four-seam 44%xwOBA 0.320

Slider 28%xwOBA 0.270

Changeup 18%xwOBA 0.280

Curve 10%xwOBA 0.290

Player markets

Reid Detmers

Pitcher strikeouts 7.5

Over 45.2%

+121 fair

MacKenzie Gore

Pitcher strikeouts 8.5

Over 43.6%

+129 fair

LAA team

Team home run 0.5

Over 62.8%

-169 fair

TEX team

Team home run 0.5

Over 62.5%

-166 fair

Desk card

TRUELINE · LAA @ TEX · Globe Life Field
Wind is a cross/neutral 0 mph. Density altitude 1,856 ft, HR multiplier 1.02x. Humidor is on — coefficient of restitution is suppressed.
Andy Fletcher squeezes the zone (walks +3%). Offense wakes up.
Reid Detmers looks stable (ERA 3.54, 10.1 K/9). MacKenzie Gore looks stable (ERA 4.40, 9.9 K/9).
Bullpen fatigue LAA 30 / TEX 19.
8,000 plate-appearance sims. Mean total 8.26 vs line 8.5. Home win 49.5%.
BET Under 11.5. Locked. Engine 80.8% — only tickets at ≥80% are published. Suggestions (not on the record): Under 9.5 68.8%; LAA +1.5 65.9%.

Unlock the desk

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