BoardFinal

Comerica Park · Aug 30, 1:40 PM EDT

LAD at DET

8,000 plate-appearance simulations · 121 ms

6–1

The desk sat

Don't bet this game

Don't bet. Best posted side is Over 7.5 at 66% — under the 80% floor.

Official tickets only at ≥80%. Sitting is the product — not a missing pick.

65% desk plays

Not official locks. Hit and miss live on this book only — never in the 80% win–loss record.

LAD +1.5
LAD +1.5 leans 73%. Suggestion only — not on the record.
Final 6–1
72.5%
Hit

LAD

82–55 · 4.89 RS/G · 3.77 RA/G

60.4%

true win

Tyler Glasnow (R) · 2.79 ERA · last-3 4.63 · 10.8 K/9 · 0.81 WHIP

DET

63–73 · 4.38 RS/G · 3.90 RA/G

39.6%

true win

Framber Valdez (L) · 4.36 ERA · last-3 5.71 · 6.9 K/9 · 1.40 WHIP

True home

39.6%

+153

True away

60.4%

-153

Mean total

9.83

median 10 · line 7.5

Books

Book	LAD ML	DET ML	Run line	Total	Over	Under
DraftKingsshade	-200	+200	DET -1.5 +257	7.5	-100	-100
FanDuelshade	-196	+183	DET -1.5 +240	7.5	-102	-102
BetMGMshade	-209	+202	DET -1.5 +258	7.5	-105	+103
Caesarsshade	-201	+187	DET -1.5 +237	7.5	-104	+101
Fanaticsshade	-214	+207	DET -1.5 +250	7.5	+101	-102
TRUELINE fair	-153	+153	+264	9.8	-171	+171

Edges vs market

Over 7.5

Mean total 9.83. Over hits 63.1%.

63.1%

+13.1

DET

DET moneyline — 39.6% of 8,000 plate-appearance sims.

39.6%

+6.3

LAD +1.5

LAD +1.5. Dog covers 72.5%.

72.5%

+0.5

DET -1.5

DET run line. Cover in 27.5% of worlds.

27.5%

-0.5

LAD

LAD moneyline — 60.4% true.

60.4%

-6.3

Under 7.5

Under 7.5 in 36.9% of sims.

36.9%

-13.1

Score distribution

Total runs across 8,000 worlds

2–3 2.4%3–4 2.1%3–2 2.1%4–3 1.9%4–5 1.8%5–4 1.8%

How the game can go

Floor, median, and ceiling scripts sampled from the engine

floorLAD 3–2 DET

LAD 3–2 DET · LAD wins

T3 · LAD 2-hole solo HR
B5 · LAD bullpen enters
T6 · DET bullpen enters

medianLAD 9–2 DET

LAD 9–2 DET · LAD wins

T5 · DET bullpen enters
B6 · LAD bullpen enters
B9 · DET 8-hole 2-run HR

ceilingLAD 10–9 DET

LAD 10–9 DET · LAD wins

T4 · LAD 8-hole 3-run HR
B4 · DET 1-hole 2-run HR
B5 · LAD bullpen enters
T6 · DET bullpen enters
B7 · DET 4-hole 2-run HR

Weather physics

Temp76°F · Cloudy

Wind5 mph R To L

Out to CF0.0 mph

Density alt.2,072 ft

HR multiplier0.94x

HumidorOff

Park345/412/330 · RF 0.96

Umpire shadow zone

Home plateScott Barry

Zoneaverage

K adj1.2%

BB adj-1.0%

No extreme strike-zone signal in the sample.

Bullpen & decay

LAD fatigue24

DET fatigue20

Away last-3 ERA4.63

Home last-3 ERA5.71

LAD rest0d

DET rest0d

F5 home30.5%

Starter Ks7.5 / 5.9

Pitch mix vs order

Framber Valdez vs LAD

Sinker 40%xwOBA 0.330

Changeup 30%xwOBA 0.280

Slider 20%xwOBA 0.300

Curve 10%xwOBA 0.300

Tyler Glasnow vs DET

Four-seam 46%xwOBA 0.320

Slider 30%xwOBA 0.260

Changeup 14%xwOBA 0.300

Curve 10%xwOBA 0.280

Player markets

Tyler Glasnow

Pitcher strikeouts 7.5

Over 42.0%

+138 fair

Framber Valdez

Pitcher strikeouts 5.5

Over 45.2%

+121 fair

LAD team

Team home run 0.5

Over 65.4%

-189 fair

DET team

Team home run 0.5

Over 58.5%

-141 fair

Desk card

TRUELINE · LAD @ DET · Comerica Park
Wind is a cross/neutral 5 mph. Density altitude 2,072 ft, HR multiplier 0.94x.
Scott Barry is a neutral zone. Matchup and weather dominate.
Tyler Glasnow's last three starts ERA 4.63 vs season 2.79. Framber Valdez's last three starts ERA 5.71 vs season 4.36.
Bullpen fatigue LAD 24 / DET 20.
8,000 plate-appearance sims. Mean total 9.83 vs line 7.5. Home win 39.6%.
No 80% ticket. Best posted side Over 7.5 at 63.1%. Suggestions (not on the record): LAD +1.5 72.5%.

Unlock the desk

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