BoardFirst pitch

Wrigley Field · Mon, 7:40 PM EDT · official lock Aug 31, 6:40 PM EDT

MIL at CHC

8,000 plate-appearance simulations · 110 ms

The desk sat

Don't bet this game

Don't bet. Best posted side is Over 9.5 at 59% — under the 80% floor.

Official tickets only at ≥80%. Sitting is the product — not a missing pick.

MIL

85–52 · 4.99 RS/G · 3.69 RA/G

50.5%

true win

Kyle Harrison (L) · 2.79 ERA · last-3 2.45 · 11.1 K/9 · 1.12 WHIP

CHC

77–60 · 5.29 RS/G · 4.36 RA/G

49.5%

true win

Clay Holmes (R) · 2.26 ERA · last-3 0.47 · 6.5 K/9 · 1.06 WHIP

True home

49.5%

+102

True away

50.5%

-102

Mean total

11.55

median 11 · line 9.5

Books

Book	MIL ML	CHC ML	Run line	Total	Over	Under
DraftKingsshade	+111	-111	CHC -1.5 +207	9.5	-100	-100
FanDuelshade	+114	-119	CHC -1.5 +197	9.5	-100	-102
BetMGMshade	+105	-112	CHC -1.5 +204	9.5	-107	+103
Caesarsshade	+111	-116	CHC -1.5 +194	9.5	-103	+101
Fanaticsshade	+103	-109	CHC -1.5 +199	9.5	-100	-102
TRUELINE fair	-102	+102	+170	11.6	-142	+142

Edges vs market

Over 9.5

Mean total 11.55. Over hits 58.7%.

58.7%

+8.7

CHC -1.5

CHC run line. Cover in 37.1% of worlds.

37.1%

+4.5

MIL

MIL moneyline — 50.5% true.

50.5%

+3.1

CHC

CHC moneyline — 49.5% of 8,000 plate-appearance sims.

49.5%

-3.1

MIL +1.5

MIL +1.5. Dog covers 62.9%.

62.9%

-4.5

Under 9.5

Under 9.5 in 41.3% of sims.

41.3%

-8.7

Score distribution

Total runs across 8,000 worlds

2–3 1.9%3–4 1.9%4–5 1.8%4–3 1.8%5–4 1.6%6–5 1.5%

How the game can go

Floor, median, and ceiling scripts sampled from the engine

floorMIL 1–3 CHC

MIL 1–3 CHC · CHC wins

B1 · CHC 2-hole 2-run HR
T5 · CHC bullpen enters
B7 · MIL bullpen enters

medianMIL 4–6 CHC

MIL 4–6 CHC · CHC wins

T2 · MIL 9-hole 3-run HR
B2 · CHC 1-hole 2-run HR
B4 · CHC 1-hole solo HR
T5 · CHC bullpen enters
B5 · MIL bullpen enters

ceilingMIL 14–8 CHC

MIL 14–8 CHC · MIL wins

T5 · CHC bullpen enters
B5 · MIL bullpen enters
T6 · MIL 6-hole grand slam
T7 · MIL 4-hole 2-run HR
B8 · CHC 3-hole solo HR

Weather physics

Temp72°F · Clear

Wind0 mph Calm

Out to CF0.0 mph

Density alt.1,754 ft

HR multiplier1.13x

HumidorOff

Park355/400/353 · RF 1.02

Umpire shadow zone

Home plateLeague Average

Zonetight

K adj-3.6%

BB adj2.9%

Sampled zone runs small. Mild Over lean.

Bullpen & decay

MIL fatigue36

CHC fatigue37

Away last-3 ERA2.45

Home last-3 ERA0.47

MIL rest0d

CHC rest0d

F5 home42.5%

Starter Ks7.6 / 6.0

Pitch mix vs order

Clay Holmes vs MIL

Sinker 38%xwOBA 0.330

Slider 24%xwOBA 0.290

Changeup 22%xwOBA 0.300

Four-seam 16%xwOBA 0.340

Kyle Harrison vs CHC

Four-seam 44%xwOBA 0.320

Slider 28%xwOBA 0.270

Changeup 18%xwOBA 0.280

Curve 10%xwOBA 0.290

Player markets

Kyle Harrison

Pitcher strikeouts 7.5

Over 42.8%

+134 fair

Clay Holmes

Pitcher strikeouts 5.5

Over 46.0%

+117 fair

MIL team

Team home run 0.5

Over 67.7%

-210 fair

CHC team

Team home run 0.5

Over 75.3%

-306 fair

Desk card

TRUELINE · MIL @ CHC · Wrigley Field
Wind is a cross/neutral 0 mph. Density altitude 1,754 ft, HR multiplier 1.13x.
League Average squeezes the zone (walks +3%). Offense wakes up.
Kyle Harrison looks stable (ERA 2.79, 11.1 K/9). Clay Holmes looks stable (ERA 2.26, 6.5 K/9).
Bullpen fatigue MIL 36 / CHC 37.
8,000 plate-appearance sims. Mean total 11.55 vs line 9.5. Home win 49.5%.
No 80% ticket. Best posted side Over 9.5 at 58.7%.

Unlock the desk

$39/mo or $299/yr for the full 65% book, Markets True, game lab, snapshots, and alerts. Official 80% tickets and the sit count stay public.