TRUELINE
BoardFinal

Progressive Field · Aug 30, 1:40 PM EDT

KC at CLE

8,000 plate-appearance simulations · 124 ms

1–11
The desk sat
Don't bet this game

Don't bet. Best posted side is CLE at 55% — under the 80% floor.

Official tickets only at ≥80%. Sitting is the product — not a missing pick.

KC
62–76 · 4.28 RS/G · 4.88 RA/G
46.0%
true win
Seth Lugo (R) · 5.03 ERA · last-3 6.32 · 6.9 K/9 · 1.42 WHIP
CLE
69–68 · 4.07 RS/G · 4.08 RA/G
54.0%
true win
Parker Messick (L) · 2.46 ERA · last-3 1.96 · 9.0 K/9 · 1.02 WHIP
True home
54.0%
-118
True away
46.0%
+118
Mean total
9.51
median 9 · line 8.5

Books

BookKC MLCLE MLRun lineTotalOverUnder
DraftKingsshade+409-409CLE -1.5 +1088.5-100-100
FanDuelshade+449-426CLE -1.5 +1078.5+103-102
BetMGMshade+407-369CLE -1.5 +1148.5-100+103
Caesarsshade+431-410CLE -1.5 +1068.5+100+101
Fanaticsshade+376-385CLE -1.5 +1068.5+102-102
TRUELINE fair+118-118+1579.5-115+115

Edges vs market

KC
KC moneyline — 46% true.
46.0%
+26.3
KC +1.5
KC +1.5. Dog covers 61.1%.
61.1%
+9.2
Over 8.5
Mean total 9.51. Over hits 53.4%.
53.4%
+3.4
Under 8.5
Under 8.5 in 46.6% of sims.
46.6%
-3.4
CLE -1.5
CLE run line. Cover in 38.9% of worlds.
38.9%
-9.2
CLE
CLE moneyline — 54.1% of 8,000 plate-appearance sims.
54.0%
-26.3

Score distribution

Total runs across 8,000 worlds

2–3 2.8%3–4 2.6%4–5 2.3%3–2 2.3%5–4 2.1%1–2 2%

How the game can go

Floor, median, and ceiling scripts sampled from the engine

floorKC 0–1 CLE

KC 0–1 CLE · CLE wins

  • T7 · CLE bullpen enters
  • B7 · KC bullpen enters
  • B7 · CLE 8-hole solo HR
medianKC 5–4 CLE

KC 5–4 CLE · KC wins

  • B6 · KC bullpen enters
  • T7 · CLE bullpen enters
ceilingKC 8–13 CLE

KC 8–13 CLE · CLE wins

  • B1 · CLE 4-hole 3-run HR
  • B1 · CLE 1-hole 3-run HR
  • B5 · KC bullpen enters
  • T6 · CLE bullpen enters
  • B7 · CLE 2-hole 2-run HR

Weather physics

Temp78°F · Cloudy
Wind10 mph L To R
Out to CF0.0 mph
Density alt.2,297 ft
HR multiplier1.05x
HumidorOff
Park325/400/325 · RF 0.98

Umpire shadow zone

Home platePaul Clemons
Zonewide
K adj2.4%
BB adj-1.9%

Sampled called-strike rate above league. Mild Under lean.

Bullpen & decay

KC fatigue31
CLE fatigue38
Away last-3 ERA6.32
Home last-3 ERA1.96
KC rest0d
CLE rest0d
F5 home48.8%
Starter Ks5.6 / 7.0

Pitch mix vs order

Parker Messick vs KC
Sinker 40%xwOBA 0.330
Changeup 30%xwOBA 0.280
Slider 20%xwOBA 0.300
Curve 10%xwOBA 0.300
Seth Lugo vs CLE
Sinker 38%xwOBA 0.330
Slider 24%xwOBA 0.290
Changeup 22%xwOBA 0.300
Four-seam 16%xwOBA 0.340

Player markets

Seth Lugo
Pitcher strikeouts 5.5
Over 42.8%
+134 fair
Parker Messick
Pitcher strikeouts 6.5
Over 46.0%
+117 fair
KC team
Team home run 0.5
Over 63.6%
-175 fair
CLE team
Team home run 0.5
Over 63.2%
-172 fair

Desk card

TRUELINE · KC @ CLE · Progressive Field
Wind is a cross/neutral 10 mph. Density altitude 2,297 ft, HR multiplier 1.05x.
Paul Clemons runs a wide zone (2% K). Unders get a bump.
Seth Lugo's last three starts ERA 6.32 vs season 5.03. Parker Messick looks stable (ERA 2.46, 9.0 K/9).
Bullpen fatigue KC 31 / CLE 38.
8,000 plate-appearance sims. Mean total 9.51 vs line 8.5. Home win 54.1%.
No 80% ticket. Best posted side CLE at 54.1%.
Unlock the desk

$39/mo or $299/yr for the full 65% book, Markets True, game lab, snapshots, and alerts. Official 80% tickets and the sit count stay public.