BoardFirst pitch

Daikin Park · Mon, 8:10 PM EDT · official lock Aug 31, 7:10 PM EDT

CWS at HOU

8,000 plate-appearance simulations · 129 ms

The desk sat

Don't bet this game

Don't bet. Best posted side is Over 9.5 at 61% — under the 80% floor.

Official tickets only at ≥80%. Sitting is the product — not a missing pick.

CWS

72–64 · 4.79 RS/G · 4.47 RA/G

46.9%

true win

Anthony Kay (L) · 4.09 ERA · last-3 5.06 · 7.4 K/9 · 1.34 WHIP

HOU

69–68 · 4.55 RS/G · 4.87 RA/G

53.1%

true win

Peter Lambert (R) · 3.66 ERA · last-3 8.16 · 8.8 K/9 · 1.23 WHIP

True home

53.1%

-113

True away

46.9%

+113

Mean total

11.58

median 11 · line 9.5

Books

Book	CWS ML	HOU ML	Run line	Total	Over	Under
DraftKingsshade	-102	+102	HOU -1.5 +226	9.5	-100	-100
FanDuelshade	+103	-101	HOU -1.5 +222	9.5	+102	-102
BetMGMshade	-108	+101	HOU -1.5 +223	9.5	-107	+103
Caesarsshade	+101	+101	HOU -1.5 +219	9.5	-100	+101
Fanaticsshade	-107	+107	HOU -1.5 +223	9.5	+102	-102
TRUELINE fair	+113	-113	+144	11.6	-155	+155

Edges vs market

Over 9.5

Mean total 11.58. Over hits 60.7%.

60.7%

+10.7

HOU -1.5

HOU run line. Cover in 40.9% of worlds.

40.9%

+10.3

HOU

HOU moneyline — 53.1% of 8,000 plate-appearance sims.

53.1%

+3.6

CWS

CWS moneyline — 46.9% true.

46.9%

-3.6

CWS +1.5

CWS +1.5. Dog covers 59.1%.

59.1%

-10.3

Under 9.5

Under 9.5 in 39.3% of sims.

39.3%

-10.7

Score distribution

Total runs across 8,000 worlds

3–4 2%4–3 1.8%5–6 1.7%4–5 1.5%4–6 1.5%3–5 1.5%

How the game can go

Floor, median, and ceiling scripts sampled from the engine

floorCWS 3–1 HOU

CWS 3–1 HOU · CWS wins

T2 · CWS 6-hole 2-run HR
T6 · HOU bullpen enters
B7 · CWS bullpen enters

medianCWS 5–6 HOU

CWS 5–6 HOU · HOU wins

B5 · CWS bullpen enters
T6 · HOU bullpen enters
T9 · CWS 3-hole 3-run HR

ceilingCWS 9–10 HOU

CWS 9–10 HOU · HOU wins

B1 · HOU 5-hole 2-run HR
T2 · CWS 1-hole 3-run HR
B4 · CWS bullpen enters
T6 · HOU bullpen enters
T7 · CWS 2-hole 3-run HR

Weather physics

Temp72°F · Clear

Wind0 mph Calm

Out to CF0.0 mph

Density alt.1,037 ft

HR multiplier1.06x

HumidorOff

Park315/409/326 · RF 0.99

Umpire shadow zone

Home plateLeague Average

Zonetight

K adj-3.6%

BB adj2.9%

Sampled zone runs small. Mild Over lean.

Bullpen & decay

CWS fatigue34

HOU fatigue29

Away last-3 ERA5.06

Home last-3 ERA8.16

CWS rest0d

HOU rest0d

F5 home49.6%

Starter Ks5.9 / 7.2

Pitch mix vs order

Peter Lambert vs CWS

Sinker 38%xwOBA 0.330

Slider 24%xwOBA 0.290

Changeup 22%xwOBA 0.300

Four-seam 16%xwOBA 0.340

Anthony Kay vs HOU

Sinker 40%xwOBA 0.330

Changeup 30%xwOBA 0.280

Slider 20%xwOBA 0.300

Curve 10%xwOBA 0.300

Player markets

Anthony Kay

Pitcher strikeouts 5.5

Over 45.2%

+121 fair

Peter Lambert

Pitcher strikeouts 6.5

Over 47.6%

+110 fair

CWS team

Team home run 0.5

Over 75.6%

-310 fair

HOU team

Team home run 0.5

Over 77.7%

-348 fair

Desk card

TRUELINE · CWS @ HOU · Daikin Park
Wind is a cross/neutral 0 mph. Density altitude 1,037 ft, HR multiplier 1.06x.
League Average squeezes the zone (walks +3%). Offense wakes up.
Anthony Kay looks stable (ERA 4.09, 7.4 K/9). Peter Lambert's last three starts ERA 8.16 vs season 3.66.
Bullpen fatigue CWS 34 / HOU 29.
8,000 plate-appearance sims. Mean total 11.58 vs line 9.5. Home win 53.1%.
No 80% ticket. Best posted side Over 9.5 at 60.7%.

Unlock the desk

$39/mo or $299/yr for the full 65% book, Markets True, game lab, snapshots, and alerts. Official 80% tickets and the sit count stay public.