BoardFirst pitch

Target Field · Mon, 7:40 PM EDT · official lock Aug 31, 6:40 PM EDT

DET at MIN

8,000 plate-appearance simulations · 125 ms

The desk sat

Don't bet this game

Don't bet. Best posted side is Over 9 at 56% — under the 80% floor.

Official tickets only at ≥80%. Sitting is the product — not a missing pick.

DET

63–73 · 4.38 RS/G · 3.90 RA/G

50.4%

true win

Jackson Jobe (R) · 3.93 ERA · last-3 5.40 · 7.4 K/9 · 1.42 WHIP

MIN

65–72 · 4.57 RS/G · 4.98 RA/G

49.6%

true win

Taj Bradley (R) · 3.97 ERA · last-3 5.74 · 10.3 K/9 · 1.28 WHIP

True home

49.6%

+102

True away

50.4%

-102

Mean total

10.99

median 10 · line 9

Books

Book	DET ML	MIN ML	Run line	Total	Over	Under
DraftKingsshade	-142	+142	MIN -1.5 +257	9	-100	-100
FanDuelshade	-137	+134	MIN -1.5 +247	9	+101	-102
BetMGMshade	-143	+151	MIN -1.5 +273	9	-100	+103
Caesarsshade	-140	+138	MIN -1.5 +244	9	-102	+101
Fanaticsshade	-151	+146	MIN -1.5 +250	9	+101	-102
TRUELINE fair	-102	+102	+170	11.0	-125	+182

Edges vs market

MIN -1.5

MIN run line. Cover in 37% of worlds.

37.0%

+9.0

MIN

MIN moneyline — 49.6% of 8,000 plate-appearance sims.

49.6%

+8.3

Over 9

Mean total 10.99. Over hits 55.6%.

55.6%

+5.6

DET

DET moneyline — 50.4% true.

50.4%

-8.3

DET +1.5

DET +1.5. Dog covers 63%.

63.0%

-9.0

Under 9

Under 9 in 35.5% of sims.

35.5%

-14.5

Score distribution

Total runs across 8,000 worlds

3–4 2.2%2–3 2%4–5 1.9%6–5 1.8%5–6 1.7%4–3 1.6%

How the game can go

Floor, median, and ceiling scripts sampled from the engine

floorDET 1–0 MIN

DET 1–0 MIN · DET wins

T7 · MIN bullpen enters
B7 · DET bullpen enters

medianDET 1–12 MIN

DET 1–12 MIN · MIN wins

T2 · DET 6-hole solo HR
B4 · DET bullpen enters
B5 · MIN 3-hole 2-run HR
T6 · MIN bullpen enters
B7 · MIN 1-hole 2-run HR

ceilingDET 16–12 MIN

DET 16–12 MIN · DET wins

B1 · MIN 1-hole solo HR
T5 · DET 7-hole solo HR
T6 · MIN bullpen enters
B6 · DET bullpen enters
B6 · MIN 8-hole 2-run HR

Weather physics

Temp72°F · Clear

Wind0 mph Calm

Out to CF0.0 mph

Density alt.2,064 ft

HR multiplier1.03x

HumidorOff

Park339/404/328 · RF 1.00

Umpire shadow zone

Home plateLeague Average

Zonetight

K adj-3.6%

BB adj2.9%

Sampled zone runs small. Mild Over lean.

Bullpen & decay

DET fatigue34

MIN fatigue24

Away last-3 ERA5.40

Home last-3 ERA5.74

DET rest0d

MIN rest0d

F5 home43.9%

Starter Ks5.7 / 7.5

Pitch mix vs order

Taj Bradley vs DET

Four-seam 46%xwOBA 0.320

Slider 30%xwOBA 0.260

Changeup 14%xwOBA 0.300

Curve 10%xwOBA 0.280

Jackson Jobe vs MIN

Sinker 38%xwOBA 0.330

Slider 24%xwOBA 0.290

Changeup 22%xwOBA 0.300

Four-seam 16%xwOBA 0.340

Player markets

Jackson Jobe

Pitcher strikeouts 5.5

Over 43.6%

+129 fair

Taj Bradley

Pitcher strikeouts 7.5

Over 42.0%

+138 fair

DET team

Team home run 0.5

Over 74.1%

-286 fair

MIN team

Team home run 0.5

Over 65.0%

-186 fair

Desk card

TRUELINE · DET @ MIN · Target Field
Wind is a cross/neutral 0 mph. Density altitude 2,064 ft, HR multiplier 1.03x.
League Average squeezes the zone (walks +3%). Offense wakes up.
Jackson Jobe's last three starts ERA 5.40 vs season 3.93. Taj Bradley's last three starts ERA 5.74 vs season 3.97.
Bullpen fatigue DET 34 / MIN 24.
8,000 plate-appearance sims. Mean total 10.99 vs line 9. Home win 49.6%.
No 80% ticket. Best posted side Over 9 at 55.6%.

Unlock the desk

$39/mo or $299/yr for the full 65% book, Markets True, game lab, snapshots, and alerts. Official 80% tickets and the sit count stay public.