BoardFirst pitch

Tropicana Field · Mon, 6:40 PM EDT · official lock Aug 31, 5:40 PM EDT

NYM at TB

8,000 plate-appearance simulations · 110 ms

The desk sat

Don't bet this game

Don't bet. Best posted side is TB at 55% — under the 80% floor.

Official tickets only at ≥80%. Sitting is the product — not a missing pick.

NYM

61–76 · 4.10 RS/G · 4.49 RA/G

45.4%

true win

Robert Stock (R) · 7.40 ERA · last-3 5.68 · 9.1 K/9 · 1.94 WHIP

82–54 · 4.53 RS/G · 4.13 RA/G

54.6%

true win

Ian Seymour (L) · 4.21 ERA · last-3 3.71 · 10.8 K/9 · 1.15 WHIP

True home

54.6%

-120

True away

45.4%

+120

Mean total

10.10

median 10 · line 9

Books

Book	NYM ML	TB ML	Run line	Total	Over	Under
DraftKingsshade	+456	-456	TB -1.5 +108	9	-100	-100
FanDuelshade	+504	-476	TB -1.5 +107	9	+103	-102
BetMGMshade	+442	-425	TB -1.5 +112	9	-102	+103
Caesarsshade	+483	-457	TB -1.5 +106	9	+100	+101
Fanaticsshade	+439	-396	TB -1.5 +111	9	+106	-102
TRUELINE fair	+120	-120	+143	10.1	+103	+142

Edges vs market

NYM

NYM moneyline — 45.4% true.

45.4%

+27.4

NYM +1.5

NYM +1.5. Dog covers 58.9%.

58.9%

+7.0

Over 9

Mean total 10.10. Over hits 49.4%.

49.4%

-0.7

TB -1.5

TB run line. Cover in 41.1% of worlds.

41.1%

-7.0

Under 9

Under 9 in 41.4% of sims.

41.4%

-8.6

TB moneyline — 54.6% of 8,000 plate-appearance sims.

54.6%

-27.4

Score distribution

Total runs across 8,000 worlds

3–4 2.2%2–3 2.2%4–5 2.1%4–3 2%3–5 1.8%3–2 1.8%

How the game can go

Floor, median, and ceiling scripts sampled from the engine

floorNYM 0–1 TB

NYM 0–1 TB · TB wins

B6 · NYM bullpen enters
T7 · TB bullpen enters

medianNYM 7–1 TB

NYM 7–1 TB · NYM wins

T1 · NYM 3-hole solo HR
T6 · TB bullpen enters
B6 · NYM bullpen enters

ceilingNYM 9–8 TB

NYM 9–8 TB · NYM wins

T3 · NYM 3-hole grand slam
B5 · NYM bullpen enters
T6 · TB bullpen enters
T7 · NYM 6-hole 3-run HR
B9 · TB 1-hole grand slam

Weather physics

Temp72°F · Clear

Wind0 mph Calm

Out to CF0.0 mph

Density alt.1,005 ft

HR multiplier0.92x

HumidorOff

Park315/404/322 · RF 0.95

Umpire shadow zone

Home plateLeague Average

Zonetight

K adj-3.6%

BB adj2.9%

Sampled zone runs small. Mild Over lean.

Bullpen & decay

NYM fatigue37

TB fatigue40

Away last-3 ERA5.68

Home last-3 ERA3.71

NYM rest0d

TB rest0d

F5 home48.9%

Starter Ks6.1 / 7.5

Pitch mix vs order

Ian Seymour vs NYM

Four-seam 44%xwOBA 0.320

Slider 28%xwOBA 0.270

Changeup 18%xwOBA 0.280

Curve 10%xwOBA 0.290

Robert Stock vs TB

Sinker 38%xwOBA 0.330

Slider 24%xwOBA 0.290

Changeup 22%xwOBA 0.300

Four-seam 16%xwOBA 0.340

Player markets

Robert Stock

Pitcher strikeouts 5.5

Over 46.8%

+114 fair

Ian Seymour

Pitcher strikeouts 7.5

Over 42.0%

+138 fair

NYM team

Team home run 0.5

Over 71.6%

-253 fair

TB team

Team home run 0.5

Over 59.7%

-148 fair

Desk card

TRUELINE · NYM @ TB · Tropicana Field
Wind is a cross/neutral 0 mph. Density altitude 1,005 ft, HR multiplier 0.92x.
League Average squeezes the zone (walks +3%). Offense wakes up.
Robert Stock looks stable (ERA 7.40, 9.1 K/9). Ian Seymour looks stable (ERA 4.21, 10.8 K/9).
Bullpen fatigue NYM 37 / TB 40.
8,000 plate-appearance sims. Mean total 10.10 vs line 9. Home win 54.6%.
No 80% ticket. Best posted side TB at 54.6%.

Unlock the desk

$39/mo or $299/yr for the full 65% book, Markets True, game lab, snapshots, and alerts. Official 80% tickets and the sit count stay public.