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Globe Life Field · Mon, 8:05 PM EDT · official lock Aug 31, 7:05 PM EDT

ATH at TEX

8,000 plate-appearance simulations · 185 ms

The desk sat

Don't bet this game

Don't bet. Best posted side is TEX at 57% — under the 80% floor.

Official tickets only at ≥80%. Sitting is the product — not a missing pick.

ATH

53–84 · 4.35 RS/G · 5.74 RA/G

43.3%

true win

Gage Jump (L) · 4.69 ERA · last-3 5.74 · 9.9 K/9 · 1.46 WHIP

TEX

67–70 · 4.04 RS/G · 4.42 RA/G

56.7%

true win

Jacob deGrom (R) · 4.21 ERA · last-3 7.71 · 11.0 K/9 · 1.18 WHIP

True home

56.7%

-131

True away

43.3%

+131

Mean total

10.39

median 10 · line 9.5

Books

Book	ATH ML	TEX ML	Run line	Total	Over	Under
DraftKingsshade	+240	-240	TEX -1.5 +129	9.5	-100	-100
FanDuelshade	+255	-250	TEX -1.5 +127	9.5	+102	-102
BetMGMshade	+228	-239	TEX -1.5 +129	9.5	-105	+103
Caesarsshade	+248	-243	TEX -1.5 +125	9.5	-100	+101
Fanaticsshade	+234	-217	TEX -1.5 +132	9.5	+106	-102
TRUELINE fair	+131	-131	+135	10.4	-106	+106

Edges vs market

ATH

ATH moneyline — 43.3% true.

43.3%

+13.9

Over 9.5

Mean total 10.39. Over hits 51.5%.

51.5%

+1.5

ATH +1.5

ATH +1.5. Dog covers 57.5%.

57.5%

+1.2

TEX -1.5

TEX run line. Cover in 42.5% of worlds.

42.5%

-1.2

Under 9.5

Under 9.5 in 48.5% of sims.

48.5%

-1.5

TEX

TEX moneyline — 56.7% of 8,000 plate-appearance sims.

56.7%

-13.9

Score distribution

Total runs across 8,000 worlds

3–4 2.3%4–5 2.2%2–3 2.2%4–3 1.8%3–5 1.7%5–4 1.7%

How the game can go

Floor, median, and ceiling scripts sampled from the engine

floorATH 0–2 TEX

ATH 0–2 TEX · TEX wins

B5 · ATH bullpen enters
T7 · TEX bullpen enters
B9 · TEX 5-hole 2-run HR

medianATH 4–6 TEX

ATH 4–6 TEX · TEX wins

T2 · ATH 8-hole 2-run HR
B5 · ATH bullpen enters
T6 · TEX bullpen enters
B6 · TEX 4-hole solo HR
B8 · TEX 2-hole solo HR

ceilingATH 13–6 TEX

ATH 13–6 TEX · ATH wins

T5 · TEX bullpen enters
B6 · ATH bullpen enters

Weather physics

Temp72°F · Clear

Wind0 mph Calm

Out to CF0.0 mph

Density alt.1,690 ft

HR multiplier1.00x

HumidorOn

Park329/407/326 · RF 0.98

Umpire shadow zone

Home plateLeague Average

Zonetight

K adj-3.6%

BB adj2.9%

Sampled zone runs small. Mild Over lean.

Bullpen & decay

ATH fatigue47

TEX fatigue29

Away last-3 ERA5.74

Home last-3 ERA7.71

ATH rest0d

TEX rest0d

F5 home48.5%

Starter Ks7.0 / 7.8

Pitch mix vs order

Jacob deGrom vs ATH

Four-seam 46%xwOBA 0.320

Slider 30%xwOBA 0.260

Changeup 14%xwOBA 0.300

Curve 10%xwOBA 0.280

Gage Jump vs TEX

Four-seam 44%xwOBA 0.320

Slider 28%xwOBA 0.270

Changeup 18%xwOBA 0.280

Curve 10%xwOBA 0.290

Player markets

Gage Jump

Pitcher strikeouts 6.5

Over 46.0%

+117 fair

Jacob deGrom

Pitcher strikeouts 7.5

Over 44.4%

+125 fair

ATH team

Team home run 0.5

Over 71.1%

-246 fair

TEX team

Team home run 0.5

Over 70.2%

-235 fair

Desk card

TRUELINE · ATH @ TEX · Globe Life Field
Wind is a cross/neutral 0 mph. Density altitude 1,690 ft, HR multiplier 1.00x. Humidor is on — coefficient of restitution is suppressed.
League Average squeezes the zone (walks +3%). Offense wakes up.
Gage Jump looks stable (ERA 4.69, 9.9 K/9). Jacob deGrom's velocity is down 0.9 mph.
Bullpen fatigue ATH 47 / TEX 29.
8,000 plate-appearance sims. Mean total 10.39 vs line 9.5. Home win 56.7%.
No 80% ticket. Best posted side TEX at 56.7%.

Unlock the desk

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