TRUELINE
BoardFirst pitch

Nationals Park · Mon, 6:45 PM EDT · official lock Aug 31, 5:45 PM EDT

MIA at WSH

8,000 plate-appearance simulations · 115 ms

The desk sat
Don't bet this game

Don't bet. Best posted side is Over 9.5 at 52% — under the 80% floor.

Official tickets only at ≥80%. Sitting is the product — not a missing pick.

MIA
69–68 · 4.34 RS/G · 4.23 RA/G
50.1%
true win
Ryan Gusto (R) · 3.98 ERA · last-3 1.26 · 7.5 K/9 · 1.33 WHIP
WSH
65–74 · 5.18 RS/G · 5.06 RA/G
49.9%
true win
Will Dion (L) · 3.67 ERA · 10.7 K/9 · 1.14 WHIP
True home
49.9%
+101
True away
50.1%
-101
Mean total
10.43
median 10 · line 9.5

Books

BookMIA MLWSH MLRun lineTotalOverUnder
DraftKingsshade+135-135WSH -1.5 +1809.5-100-100
FanDuelshade+139-144WSH -1.5 +1729.5-100-102
BetMGMshade+134-127WSH -1.5 +1899.5-101+103
Caesarsshade+136-141WSH -1.5 +1709.5-103+101
Fanaticsshade+129-128WSH -1.5 +1799.5+103-102
TRUELINE fair-101+101+17310.4-107+107

Edges vs market

MIA
MIA moneyline — 50.1% true.
50.1%
+7.6
Over 9.5
Mean total 10.43. Over hits 51.7%.
51.7%
+1.7
WSH -1.5
WSH run line. Cover in 36.6% of worlds.
36.6%
+0.9
MIA +1.5
MIA +1.5. Dog covers 63.4%.
63.4%
-0.9
Under 9.5
Under 9.5 in 48.3% of sims.
48.3%
-1.7
WSH
WSH moneyline — 49.9% of 8,000 plate-appearance sims.
49.9%
-7.6

Score distribution

Total runs across 8,000 worlds

3–4 2.2%4–3 2%4–5 2%3–2 1.8%2–3 1.8%5–6 1.7%

How the game can go

Floor, median, and ceiling scripts sampled from the engine

floorMIA 4–1 WSH

MIA 4–1 WSH · MIA wins

  • T6 · WSH bullpen enters
  • B6 · MIA bullpen enters
  • T9 · MIA 9-hole solo HR
medianMIA 3–7 WSH

MIA 3–7 WSH · WSH wins

  • T5 · MIA 2-hole 2-run HR
  • T6 · WSH bullpen enters
  • B6 · WSH 4-hole solo HR
  • B6 · MIA bullpen enters
  • B6 · WSH 8-hole 3-run HR
ceilingMIA 27–1 WSH

MIA 27–1 WSH · MIA wins

  • T4 · WSH bullpen enters
  • T6 · MIA 6-hole 2-run HR
  • B6 · MIA bullpen enters
  • T8 · MIA 3-hole 3-run HR

Weather physics

Temp72°F · Clear
Wind0 mph Calm
Out to CF0.0 mph
Density alt.1,018 ft
HR multiplier1.07x
HumidorOff
Park336/403/335 · RF 1.01

Umpire shadow zone

Home plateLeague Average
Zonetight
K adj-3.6%
BB adj2.9%

Sampled zone runs small. Mild Over lean.

Bullpen & decay

MIA fatigue26
WSH fatigue37
Away last-3 ERA1.26
Home last-3 ERA—
MIA rest0d
WSH rest0d
F5 home43.6%
Starter Ks6.1 / 7.5

Pitch mix vs order

Will Dion vs MIA
Four-seam 44%xwOBA 0.320
Slider 28%xwOBA 0.270
Changeup 18%xwOBA 0.280
Curve 10%xwOBA 0.290
Ryan Gusto vs WSH
Sinker 38%xwOBA 0.330
Slider 24%xwOBA 0.290
Changeup 22%xwOBA 0.300
Four-seam 16%xwOBA 0.340

Player markets

Ryan Gusto
Pitcher strikeouts 5.5
Over 46.8%
+114 fair
Will Dion
Pitcher strikeouts 7.5
Over 42.0%
+138 fair
MIA team
Team home run 0.5
Over 74.1%
-286 fair
WSH team
Team home run 0.5
Over 71.9%
-256 fair

Desk card

TRUELINE · MIA @ WSH · Nationals Park
Wind is a cross/neutral 0 mph. Density altitude 1,018 ft, HR multiplier 1.07x.
League Average squeezes the zone (walks +3%). Offense wakes up.
Ryan Gusto looks stable (ERA 3.98, 7.5 K/9). Will Dion looks stable (ERA 3.67, 10.7 K/9).
Bullpen fatigue MIA 26 / WSH 37.
8,000 plate-appearance sims. Mean total 10.43 vs line 9.5. Home win 49.9%.
No 80% ticket. Best posted side Over 9.5 at 51.7%.
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